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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
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Posted inStatistics

Lewandowsky’s Confusion About Statistics

Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…
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Posted inStatistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Teaching Journal: Day 9—Hypothesis Testing: Part II

A review. We have sales data from two campaigns, A and B, data in which we choose (as a premise) to quantify our uncertainty with normal distributions. We assume the…
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Posted inStatistics

Teaching Journal: Day 8—Hypothesis Testing: Part I

Hypothesis testing nicely encapsulates all that is wrong with frequentist statistics. It is a procedure which hides the most controversial assumption/premise. It operates under a "null" belief which nobody believes.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Teaching Journal: Day 7

The joke is old and hoary and so well known that I risk the reader's ire for repeating it. But it contains a damning truth. Most academic statistical studies are…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Teaching Journal: Day 5

Let's make sure we grasped yesterday's lesson. Emails and comments suggest we have not. These concepts are hardest for those who have only had classical training. We want to know…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on Class 98: Limitations of Genetic Associations With PersonalityOctober 22, 2026

    Across the world, many jurisdictions ban pet "pit bulls". Are they in error?

  2. NLR on Against Numerology: Some Basic CalculationsOctober 19, 2026

    The mathematician Richard Guy wrote a paper "The strong law of small numbers", where he said, facetiously, but also serirously:…

  3. aGrimm on Book UpdateOctober 16, 2026

    I'm looking forward to the book; warts and all the first was enlightening and fun to read.

  4. John Pate on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    I'm a big fan of LaTeX. I wrote a class package that made it into one or more of the…

  5. Ursula on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    i have your first edition which I read, pencil in hand foor the typos. Loved it anyway! Will be buying…

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