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Why Bayes Is Not The Fix We Need: A Critique of Bayesian Inference and its Application
Posted inStatistics

Why Bayes Is Not The Fix We Need: A Critique of Bayesian Inference and its Application

I've pointed out many times some of the weaknesses of traditional statistical practices, and how the routine use of "hypothesis testing" leads to an ever-growing mountain of Broken Science. Some…
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“Why Didn’t Use You The [fill in the blank] Model On That NZ Data, Briggs?”
Posted inStatistics

“Why Didn’t Use You The [fill in the blank] Model On That NZ Data, Briggs?”

"Hey, Briggs. I saw your take on the leaked New Zealand vaccine data. Interesting. But why didn't you use [Insert My Favorite Statistics Model Here]?" [Blog, Substack mirror.] I'll tell…
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Coal Dust Is Claimed To Kill Old People: A New Instance of the Epidemiologist Fallacy
Posted inStatistics

Coal Dust Is Claimed To Kill Old People: A New Instance of the Epidemiologist Fallacy

There are a lot of new readers, and many may not yet have heard of the epidemiologist fallacy. Few tools have been as productive at generating The Science. You know…
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The Field Of Statistics Is Doomed — Unless It Abandons Testing & Parameter-Based Analysis
Posted inStatistics

The Field Of Statistics Is Doomed — Unless It Abandons Testing & Parameter-Based Analysis

The first part of this article also appears at the Broken Science Initiative. Go there to read it, too, and many other good ones by other authors. We already saw…
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The Regime’s New De Facto “AI” Law And The End Of Pattern Recognition
Posted inCulture Statistics

The Regime’s New De Facto “AI” Law And The End Of Pattern Recognition

News is that Regime put out a new law, bypassing Congress as usual, in the form of an "executive order", about "AI". The new law's title is "Safe, Secure, and…
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What Is a Model of a Model of a Model? “Climate Change”!
Posted inStatistics

What Is a Model of a Model of a Model? “Climate Change”!

One of our main themes is Uncertainty. In short, there is not enough of it, especially in Science. Which is to say, there is a surfeit of certainty. We drown…
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The Great Grand Bluff Of Science
Posted inPhilosophy

The Great Grand Bluff Of Science

Everybody knows the story of the turtles. The earth is held up by four large elephants, some say, which stand on the shell of an enormous turtle. When asked what…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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  1. Eric Kay Sci Fi on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 24, 2026

    Thanks for the write-up. Thinking about things in the way of a probability distribution has always helped me, but also…

  2. Philip Rogan on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 24, 2026

    Brian, good comment. A coincidence is only a coincidence to the person to which the coincidence occurred.

  3. John Pate on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 23, 2026

    Now do Synchronicity.

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?July 23, 2026

    If a 7/11 sale occurrs in a forest, and nobody is around to document it, does it make a sound?…

  5. Willis Eschenbach on Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap HanekampJuly 23, 2026

    Thanks as always, Matt. I'd be interested in your (or anyone's) comments on my post below about the Precautionary Principle.…

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