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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

A Common, Unfortunate, Avoidable, Devastating Error In Statistics

It's a doozy, this error of ours. So ubiquitous is it that it's hardly noticeable. Yet it is sinking us into scientism and wild overconfidence. Every time it appears, both…
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Posted inStatistics

That Conservatives Smell Different Than Progressives Study Stinks

Several readers asked me to examine the peer-reviewed study "Assortative Mating on Ideology Could Operate Through Olfactory Cues" by Rose McDermott, Dustin Tingley, and Peter K. Hatemi appearing in the…
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Posted inStatistics

A Wandering Mind Is An Unhappy Mind?

The gentleman who runs Shadow To Light asked me to take a look at a paper which Sam Harris approvingly quoted. The 2010 peer-reviewed one-page paper shares today's title (sans…
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Posted inStatistics

That Innovation Is Negatively Correlated With Religion Study

Quick Quiz O' The Day: What do you get when you marry an abysmal knowledge of history, a sublime narcissism, an ignorance of the nature of evidence, a perverse hatred…
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Posted inPhilosophy

The Science-Is-Self-Correcting Fallacy

"You know my theory is true," said the grant-wielding scientist, "Because science is self-correcting." That statement is a fallacy because, of course, even supposing that science is self-correcting, there is…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Is Not A Body. Update

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Update I…
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Posted inStatistics

Exposure To Fracking Reduces Low-Birth-Weight Babies

Shouldn't a peer-reviewed paper which purports to tie chemicals produced in the manufacture of natural gas (fracking etc.) to birth defects actually measure exposure (of fetus carriers, i.e. "mothers") to…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

Latest Threat To Global Warming? In Vitro Fertilization

Stop me if you're heard this one before. An academic, educated well beyond her capabilities, having a lot of free time on her hands, and frightened past the point of…
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  1. Rich on Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their PillowsNovember 10, 2025

    I'm presuming that "centrifugal logic" is reasoning that flees from sense.

  2. shawn marshall on Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their PillowsNovember 10, 2025

    all I can say is "Oh my" Romans 1: 16-32 I think

  3. Johnno on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 9, 2025

    Facts and logic are very diverse things. As diverse as peoples, with diverse facts and diverse ways of logicking. Liberal…

  4. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 9, 2025

    Thank you for your answer, Professor. So the prediction interval is useful for predicting the number of failures among the…

  5. Briggs on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    Darin, There is no interval around a probability (with esoteric exceptions not of interest to us). All your evidence is…

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