Posted inStatistics
Can We Predict The Unpredictable?
The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today's post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Give Up Carbon For Lent?
Ought to be easy to give up carbon for Lent, as the Global Catholic Climate Movement suggests1. Step one: don't exhale and don't eat---your breath and food are chock full…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Government Witch Hunt Of Scientists Begins: DOJ To Join In? Update! Inhofe Fights Back
Please help publicize this calumny. Agree with me about this. If---and I only say if---the global-warming-of-doom we have been promised is false, then there is nothing for government to do…
Posted inStatistics
Predicting Doom—Guest Post by Thomas Galli
I am not a statistics wizard; an engineer, I value the predictive power of statistics. Indeed, if one can precisely control variables in the design of an experiment, statistics-based prediction…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Goon Squad Fails To Distract Public From Fact That Climate Models Stink: Update 3
If you're new to the site, don't forget to check out the Classic Posts page. Our continuing walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is postponed until next week. Feel free to…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?
When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com's Senate prediction, it said "Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority." There were also words that the "probability that each party will win control…
Posted inStatistics
Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell
I've never seen the show, but I've heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, "I want to believe." That sentiment characterizes…
Posted inStatistics
There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection
This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…
