Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Are The Chances Of That?
Go ahead and ask me. I'll even pretend to laugh. Just as I chuckle warmly with you when you quote Mark Twain (or Disraeli) abut damned lies. (Secretly, I'll be…
Posted inBook review Culture Philosophy
You Can’t Get Something From Nothing: The Experience of God, Part II
Read Part I You can't get there from here It's difficult, thus far impossible, to get Enlightened persons to understand nothing. Lord knows it's been tried. Some physicists---Larry Krauss, Vic…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
Best Picture Oscar Winner: Model Prediction
For several years I have been predicting (with perfect accuracy) the best picture Oscar. (See this and this for past years.) The "model" pick for this year is Captain Phillips.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Statistics Really Is: Part Last
Read Part I, Part Paradox, Part II Recapitulation: we have Pr(p|qm) where p is a proposition of interest, q the evidence we have compiled in the form of observations and…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Statistics Really Is: Part II
Read Part I, Part Paradox I claimed, and it is true, that all statistical problems could be written $latex \Pr(p|q)$, where p is a proposition of interest and q is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Statistics Really Is: Paradox Digression
Read Part I We're taking a small digression to answer a question put by Deborah Mayo in Part I, pointing to this article on her site. Mayo should be on…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Statistics Really Is: Part I
It's so simple that you'll think I'm kidding. Worse, the way I'll show it is such a radical departure from the manner in which you're used to thinking about probability…
Posted inStatistics
Statistics Talk: Chances Are You’re Doing It Wrong
The problem with statistics is the astonishing amount of magical thinking tolerated. A statistician---or his apprentice; this means you---waving a formula over a dataset is little different than an alchemist…