Posted inStatistics
Selling Fear Is A Risky Business: Part Last
Read Part I, Part II. Don't be lazy. This is difficult but extremely important stuff. Let's add in a layer of uncertainty and see what happens. But first hike up…
Posted inStatistics
Selling Fear Is A Risky Business: Part II
Read Part I. Seriously. Read it. Not everything is easy. Today's stuff is used to make decisions about your life, so pay attention. Cue the organ... When we last left…
Posted inStatistics
Selling Fear Is A Risky—And Profitable—Business: Part I
Not a trick question: what's the difference between a risk of one in ten million and one of two in ten million? The official answer is "Not much." Though I…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Pearl of Great Price–Pascal’s Wager Revisited: Guest Post by Bob Kurland
Bob Kurland is a self-described "retired, cranky, old physicist" and convert to Catholicism. He blogs at Reflections of a Catholic Scientist, where this piece first appeared. Again, the kingdom of…
Posted inStatistics
Was The UEFA Champions League Draw Rigged?—Bayesian Analysis by Henk Tijms
Henk Tijms, emeritus professor at the Vrije University in Amsterdam, is author of Understanding Probability (excerpt; Amazon at this writing has it for only $31.29, a steal for textbooks). Football…
Posted inFun Statistics
Engaging, Witty, Funny, Brilliant, And Most Humble Speaker Seeks Gigs
Are you in the need of a speaker for your event? Do you desire a trainer who can deliver more than what you can look up on your own on…
Posted inStatistics
“Probably Fine” Isn’t A Number
Today's headline is a true proposition. "Probably fine" isn't a number, yet it is a perfectly reasonable way to communicate risk. Indeed most risk is, and should be, given in…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More On True Models And Predictive Inference
Not all models are false. So much we have discussed before. To say a model is false is to show that one of the premises which comprise the model is…