Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
A Probability Non-Paradox
Before you is a box in which is a slip of paper on which is written either '0', '1', '2', or '3'. Given that premise, what is the probability of…
Posted inStatistics
Monty Hall And This Video Prove Probability Is Measure Of Truth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5-I0bAuEUE This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. This post is really an excuse to highlight a cute video that's being…
Posted inFun
Upcoming Probability & Statistics Talks! The Climate, Over-Certainty & More!
Update Classic Posts page link fixed. When & Where I have no idea. As soon as somebody hires me to give them. Since I am out of the system, I…
Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics
An Introduction To Uncertainty: Probability, Statistics, and Modeling of All Kinds
This is a teaser, the first part of a 3,200-word narrative outline for the book that I've started to shop around. The current title is in the headline. Regular readers…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?
When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com's Senate prediction, it said "Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority." There were also words that the "probability that each party will win control…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability
Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
There Is No Such Thing As Intrinsic Probability
This is less fun than looking at the so-called principle of indifference, which you must read first, and I realize we're wading into the depths and on a Friday, but…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Physical Probability Doesn’t Exist
There have been many attempts to tie probability to physical chance. Here, briefly and for discussion, is why I think all of them fail. Ontology does not recapitulate epistemology Let…