To clarify: to prove false means to demonstrate a valid argument with a certain conclusion. If a theory/model says an event is merely unlikely---make it as unlikely as you like,…

Update This post is mandatory reading for those discussing global average temperature. I mean it: exceedingly brief and given only with respect to a univariate time series, such as operationally…

Read the first entry in this series. All of what follows will appear ridiculously obvious to those who have had no statistical training. Those who have must struggle. In a…

Since the subject arose yesterday, and for other reasons which I'll explain later, I thought we should revisit this series, which ran a year ago. I have edited and expanded…

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…