Search Results for “probability” – Page 115

All Forecasts, Predictions, & Prophecies Are Contingent

Yesterday I made the point that Jim Hansen's latest threat of doom was a conditional one. I also said that there was nothing wrong with this. And there isn't. Nothing…

Statistics

Statistics Proves Same Drug Both Causes And Does Not Cause Same Cancer

No, the title of today's post is not a joke, even though it has often been used that way in the past. The title was inspired by yesterday's Wall Street…

Philosophy Statistics

Love Of Theory Is The Root Of All Evil

Love of truth, on the other hand, is the root of all that is good. Bill Whittle at PJTV very kindly produced a video entitled "Best. Sentence. Ever." (it…

Fun Philosophy

The Red-Ball-In-The-Box Fallacy

Okay, friends, I need your help. One day last year, shortly after I had arrived in Taiwan, I awoke from a fitful, jet-lagged sleep at 2 a.m. with the argument…

Fun Statistics

Wearing A New Hat At JP Research

I am now a member of JP Research. What does this mean to you, my loyal readers? Little, except that my contact information for consulting has changed. New telephone and…

Culture Philosophy Statistics

Diversity Is Not Always Desirable Part III

Diversity Is Not Always Desirable Parts I, II, III, IV Race, whether or not it can be successfully defined biologically, is clearly important. People, even the non-sincere, at least act…

Fun Statistics

Are The Masters Winners Getting Younger And Better? Predictions Update

Update As of this writing, the 2012 Masters is halfway through, so it's a good time to re-examine the predictions made last April for this year's tournament. Scores have been…

Fun Statistics

On Not Winning The Lottery: Horrible Death & Strategies For Winning

Still Here The unthinkable has happened: neither I, nor most certainly you, have won the lottery. Notice I did not use the word "inconceivable", but merely "unthinkable." For while it…

Tars Tarkas on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
"(I have in the queue a story on confirmation bias of academic Experts that confirms my bias that academic Experts…
Stan on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 13, 2026
Around 2013, I obtained all death certificate data from the state of California for the years 2000-2012. I posted on…
Briggs on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026
Anon. I believe you'll find they are the same. I did a little shorthand by first taking the absolute value…
Anonymous on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 13, 2026
Errata: your moneyline formula should have (x - 100) in the denominator for -x.
Dana on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
I was cured of buying lotto tickets about 40 years ago when a Brisbane newspaper published an article about gambling,…