Search Results for “probability” – Page 121

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Philosophy Statistics

Contingency, Causality, Determinism, And Free Will

In thinking about what probability means, it's important to sort out what is contingent and what relationship contingent events have to causality. Contingency simply means that what is could have…

Statistics

Two New Papers vs. BEST: Guest Post by Lüdecke, Link, and Ewert

Horst Lüdecke is a Professor of Physiker in EIKE, European Institute for Climate and Energy, Heidelberg; Dr. Link is a physicist with EIKE; Prof. Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewert is a geologist…

Statistics

BEST And The Wall Street Journal’s Numbers Guy

Carl Bialik, the Wall Street Journal's Numbers Guy, has two columns about BEST's temperature reconstruction model: "Global Temperatures: All Over the Map" and "A New Trove of Global Temperature Numbers").…

Chad W Jessup on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 2, 2026
Sadly, Briggs is spot on overall, but the women he refers to do not represent the tough farm/ranch gals.
shawn marshall on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 2, 2026
c-marie = are you quoting something?
C-Marie on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 2, 2026
Perhaps think on this: God is extremely angry with the killings and mass murders of the unborn and just born…
Carlos Julio Casanova Guerra on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 2, 2026
William: I tried to find a way contact you other than the comments section, but didn't find one: sorry if…
Cary D Cotterman on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 2, 2026
My wife is the only sane, rational, conservative woman I know. Her sisters and nieces and their female friends are…