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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I

I say that the Detroit Tigers, the baseball team---baseball being the most sublime of all sports, and this team being the game's most stalwart representative---will beat the Boston Red Sox…
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Posted inStatistics

Statistics Compared To Ladies Of Ill Repute?

While Theoretical Statistics is (mainly) a decent albeit rather boring mathematical discipline (Probability Theory is much more exciting), so called Applied Statistics is in its big part a whore. Finding…
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Posted inStatistics

I’m Selected As An IPCC Expert Reviewer

Update Dear William Briggs, The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Co-Chairs are pleased to announce the Expert Review of the First Order Draft (FOD) of the WGI contribution to the…
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Posted inStatistics

Can fMRI Predict Who Believes In God? Part V

Read Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII Quick review: people's heads were stuck in an fMRI; inside, they read questions to which…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

Predictions For 2011. How’d We do?

Last January 1st I asked for everybody to provide verifiable predictions for the year. Time for reckoning! Tomorrow I'll ask us to provide predictions for 2012, so hold off on…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Top 10 Sure Things: Which NFL Games Were The Easiest To Pick?

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to see how extreme bookies would go in making NFL picks, as judged by the probabilities of home-team wins as derived from…
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Posted inFun Statistics

How To Find True Love: The Marriage Problem

MEB + ARK, a.k.a. the Haystack Hunters, wrote the following: As fans of your work in real life probability and breaking the law of averages, we were hoping you could…
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Posted inStatistics

Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science

Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…
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  1. Robert Arvanitis on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    The only question is capacity to recognize guilt. If the perpetrator was allowed to vote in national elections, the perpetrator…

  2. Joe Blow on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    I would proffer from a species standpoint, REMOVING exceptionally low IQ individuals from the gene pool should be carried out…

  3. Tim O. on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 1, 2026

    ALL the concern over IQ and competency is the same smoke screen used as "motive" is commonly used: If the…

  4. Briggs on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerMay 29, 2026

    JohnK, Thanks. Rather depressing.

  5. JohnK on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerMay 29, 2026

    Long time, no comment, but a few years ago I compared estimated stillbirth + abortion numbers (excluding miscarriages) in the…

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