Posted inStatistics
I’m Selected As An IPCC Expert Reviewer
Update Dear William Briggs, The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Co-Chairs are pleased to announce the Expert Review of the First Order Draft (FOD) of the WGI contribution to the…
Posted inStatistics
Can fMRI Predict Who Believes In God? Part V
Read Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII Quick review: people's heads were stuck in an fMRI; inside, they read questions to which…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
Predictions For 2011. How’d We do?
Last January 1st I asked for everybody to provide verifiable predictions for the year. Time for reckoning! Tomorrow I'll ask us to provide predictions for 2012, so hold off on…
Posted inFun Statistics
Top 10 Sure Things: Which NFL Games Were The Easiest To Pick?
Today's post is over at Edgehogs. I wanted to see how extreme bookies would go in making NFL picks, as judged by the probabilities of home-team wins as derived from…
Posted inFun Statistics
How To Find True Love: The Marriage Problem
MEB + ARK, a.k.a. the Haystack Hunters, wrote the following: As fans of your work in real life probability and breaking the law of averages, we were hoping you could…
Posted inStatistics
Increasing Replication Of Un-Reproducibility In Science
Best science picture of the year, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (and thanks to reader Dan Hughes): In just the last decade---ten mere years---the number of "peer-reviewed" journal articles…
Posted inStatistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus
This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V
We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…