Search Results for “probability” – Page 125

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Philosophy Statistics

Contingency, Causality, Determinism, And Free Will

In thinking about what probability means, it's important to sort out what is contingent and what relationship contingent events have to causality. Contingency simply means that what is could have…

Statistics

Two New Papers vs. BEST: Guest Post by Lüdecke, Link, and Ewert

Horst Lüdecke is a Professor of Physiker in EIKE, European Institute for Climate and Energy, Heidelberg; Dr. Link is a physicist with EIKE; Prof. Dr. Friedrich-Karl Ewert is a geologist…

Statistics

BEST And The Wall Street Journal’s Numbers Guy

Carl Bialik, the Wall Street Journal's Numbers Guy, has two columns about BEST's temperature reconstruction model: "Global Temperatures: All Over the Map" and "A New Trove of Global Temperature Numbers").…

John Pate on Happy Birthday to USJuly 2, 2026
Surely America is a province of Israel now - didn't they just merge the armed forces?
C-Marie on Happy Birthday to USJuly 2, 2026
So it is. Do read John Adams by David Mccullough ..... an excellent read ... and the marital love berween…
Cary D Cotterman on Happy Birthday to USJuly 2, 2026
If any celebrity actors or mainstream, non-Fox news outlets did 250th anniversary messages now, they'd be about made-up or exaggerated…
Tars Tarkas on Happy Birthday to USJuly 2, 2026
Our 250th birthday isn't for another 13 years in 2039. It's been 250 years since Independence Day, but we had…
Brian (bulaoren) on Happy Birthday to USJuly 2, 2026
I arranged to stretch out my studies so that I would still be in Montreal for the 1976 Olympic games.…