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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

2012 UEFA European Football Championship And What Probability Is

A pair of statisticians have calculated that, as of 10 June, the probability that Germany takes the 2012 Euro Cup is 26.8%. Russia, they say, comes in with the next…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Probability Of Nonsense In Science: Complexity & Verification

This is a work in progress, and today is a busy day. This is just for fun and for you to play with. The more complex the field of study,…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Sleeping Beauty Probability Problem

Update This has been moved up from its original 29 Feb 2012 date on 23 March 2012 to allow additional comments. Update This has been moved up from its original…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Humble Tautology And Probability

Start with the premises P1 = "All men are mortal" and P2 = "Socrates is a man" and from them we want to know the status of the conclusion C…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Solution Given! Probability Problem: Measurement Error Of Colored Balls

From a colleague (who wishes to remain anonymous) comes this poser: Suppose that we have a box containing three objects: one red ball and two identical blue cubes. One object…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

On Probability Leakage

Submitted for your approval, yet another paper. On Probability Leakage, posted at Arxiv. Once you, my beloved readers, have had a go with it, I'll incorporate your comments in an…
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  1. spaceranger on Impossible LSAT Statistics QuestionFebruary 4, 2026

    I usually go with "b." or "Asia" on those multiple choice ones.

  2. Cary D Cotterman on Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So WellFebruary 4, 2026

    Polar bears have existed for at least half a million years, and possibly as long as a million. They have…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So WellFebruary 4, 2026

    Dr. Briggs I was afraid I'd hijacked your subject today with my, rather dark, "Walter Lantz" cartoon. Returning to your…

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So WellFebruary 4, 2026

    While we're on the subject of "Ursus Maritimus"; In 1987, a group of amusement denied boys decided to make an…

  5. hudbwu on Impossible LSAT Statistics QuestionFebruary 3, 2026

    > But that’s because the setup is itself weird. It contains the implicit premise that more beliefs equals better survival,…

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