It would be a good joke to conclude "If Pr(Data we didn't see | Cause false) is small then Cause is true", but it isn't. People believe it. Peers review…

We want Pr(H|Evidence), we get Pr(Data we didn't see | H false). And then everybody pretends they are the same. Why why why. Video https://youtu.be/WIZN3BesJps Links: YouTube * Twitter -…

Hypothesis testing has told us what probably isn't true. It can't see all evidence. Here's how to do it right. Video https://youtu.be/5yoRSQMWle4 Links: YouTube * Twitter - X * Rumble…

A guy correctly "sees" 4 cards out of 52. A wee P hypothesis test says he has psychic powers. Does he? We only begin this difficult question today. Video https://youtu.be/_mgOCfEkIWQ…

A lady says she has the ability to identify whether tea or milk is poured in a cup first. What does "have the ability mean?" and why is it so…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

A coincidence, or co-incidents, as we have discussed, is the joining together of two or more events that stick in your mind and call out for a causal connection. Here…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…