Hypothesis testing has told us what probably isn't true. It can't see all evidence. Here's how to do it right. Video https://youtu.be/5yoRSQMWle4 Links: YouTube * Twitter - X * Rumble…

A guy correctly "sees" 4 cards out of 52. A wee P hypothesis test says he has psychic powers. Does he? We only begin this difficult question today. Video https://youtu.be/_mgOCfEkIWQ…

A lady says she has the ability to identify whether tea or milk is poured in a cup first. What does "have the ability mean?" and why is it so…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

A coincidence, or co-incidents, as we have discussed, is the joining together of two or more events that stick in your mind and call out for a causal connection. Here…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…

Here's the propaganda headline: "Climate change is making it harder for us to sleep: Study". Which cannot be believed. Yet if they would have said "Climate change research making it…

Here in this Fun Fourth run up are some puzzles to tease out your "IQ". Only those with high "IQ"s will get them, so beware! Try them all first before…