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When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?
Posted inClass Statistics

When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?

Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme…
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Blog Mechanics: Ideas Solicited On How To Handle Comments: Update
Posted inFun

Blog Mechanics: Ideas Solicited On How To Handle Comments: Update

It was remarked the other day that a comment moderation system of some kind should be used here on the blog. The reason is that are some people who come…
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Claiming To Be Able To Blame Weather Events On Global Warming
Posted inStatistics

Claiming To Be Able To Blame Weather Events On Global Warming

This is not a big story, but it's worth highlighting because of the pernicious effects of science journalism, which suffers from the same faults as political journalism. Emphasis on extremes,…
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Disproving Kossin’s Increasing Hurricane Intensity Claims: Update — Guest Post by Greg Kent
Posted inStatistics

Disproving Kossin’s Increasing Hurricane Intensity Claims: Update — Guest Post by Greg Kent

Editor's note I have strong views on statistical "significance", confidence intervals, p-values, and all that, finding them harmful and worse. However, Kossin used these concepts, and a criticism of his…
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What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?
Posted inStatistics

What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?

For readers in a hurry, here's the answer: There is no probability of a nuclear war. Nor of a conventional one. Nor even of you being victor in your next…
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AI Getting Too Good At Predicting Crime, So It’s Being Purged
Posted inStatistics

AI Getting Too Good At Predicting Crime, So It’s Being Purged

If all we know about an American male is that he is an American male, we can use data on observed rates American males committed crimes to predict that this…
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One Milwaukee Ballot Curiosity & One New Theoretical Voter Fraud Tool
Posted inStatistics

One Milwaukee Ballot Curiosity & One New Theoretical Voter Fraud Tool

Milwaukee Milwaukee is comprised of a number of wards, almost 500, from which was collected the number of votes each candidate received in both the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections…
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Breaking: Wind From Tropical Cyclones Cure Hemorrhoids
Posted inStatistics

Breaking: Wind From Tropical Cyclones Cure Hemorrhoids

Lost count of the number of "studies" that feel---not think---that they must invoke terror to justify their undertaking. Take this peer-reviewed gem from Nature Communications by Robbie M. Parks and…
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    Radio is not ending sadly. It is happily transitioning to internet streaming radio. My favorite is the Instrumental Channel on…

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    Right on, Brian (bulaoren)!! It has never been the same without Rush!! God bless, C-Marie

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