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In Which Feynman Makes A Mistake: Negative Probabilities (Used In AI, QM, Finance)
Posted inStatistics

In Which Feynman Makes A Mistake: Negative Probabilities (Used In AI, QM, Finance)

Richard Feynman wasn't the first to suggest negative probabilities. That recognition goes to Paul Dirac, who introduced them and negative energies at the same time---because he thought these things explained…
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Class 31: How Views Diverge With New Evidence
Posted inStatistics

Class 31: How Views Diverge With New Evidence

Is Trump a Russian Asset? (This question accounts for the change in banner image this week.) What happens to belief when people learn new evidence about this curious proposition? Theory…
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What Health Insurance Should Be, But Isn’t
Posted inStatistics

What Health Insurance Should Be, But Isn’t

Now that a Health Insurance guy has been whacked, it's time to review. Here is an expanded version of a thread I did on Twitter---which is all a repeat of…
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Emergence Is Substance; Entanglement Is Substance: Science Is Healing
Posted inStatistics

Emergence Is Substance; Entanglement Is Substance: Science Is Healing

There is an idea taking shape, vague but gaining strength, that good things are coming to Science. Science, I say, not academia. Only a cleansing fire will save academia. One…
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Posted inStatistics

How To Read The Paper Claiming Semaglutide Reduces Cardiomyocyte Size and Cardiac Mass

There is a new Research Shows paper on whether drugs like Ozempic (semaglutide) lower cardiac muscle mass. It makes a good lesson in how to read statistical claims. The paper…
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Class 30: Hypothesis Testing Stinks I
Posted inStatistics

Class 30: Hypothesis Testing Stinks I

Today the math, which you don't strictly need if you can't calculate, behind how to think about Research Shows headlines and papers. This will be an invaluable exercise. You must…
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The Impossibilities Of Quantum Computing
Posted inStatistics

The Impossibilities Of Quantum Computing

Since we'll soon be discussing cause in the Class, and nowhere is cause as difficult as it is in quantum mechanics, and because somebody recently reminded me of Scott Locklin's…
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Bad Predictions Mean Bad Models, Even If You’re A Distinguished Expert
Posted inStatistics

Bad Predictions Mean Bad Models, Even If You’re A Distinguished Expert

Suppose you're an Expert, or even an ordinary person, and you say, "If the world is like X, then Y will happen". Or you say or imply, "If the world…
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    Marbles was a thing in my primary school in Cambridge, England in the sixties. I don't recall girls ever playing…

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