Posted inStatistics
Solution To The Kind-Hearted Magician — REVEALED!
Kip Hansen last week gave us the following scenario (which I've pared to bare essentials here, but check the original if you fret): START Sam shows us three cards, two…
Posted inPhilosophy
Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty
This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate…
Posted inStatistics
The Claim 37% Of Heat Deaths Are Caused By Global Warming Is Absurd
The media has been reporting that 37% "of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change". They gleaned this from the peer-reviewed paper, "The burden of heat-related mortality…
Posted inStatistics
Statistics (Philosophy) Quiz: See If You Really Know What You’re Doing Using Tests
This is from Gerd Gigerenzer's "Mindless statistics" in The Journal of Socio-Economics, 33, (2004) 587–606. Have a go before looking at the answers (I'm giving my own, not quoting Gigerenzer).…
Posted inStatistics
Absolute Vs. Relative Risk Reduction; Trump Likes Vaccines; The Fabulous Fauci; Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam Getting Theirs; More! — Coronavirus Update LXXIII
WE CONTINUE The consensus---and we never buck consensii; consensuses?---was to keep these updates going for the time being, but expanding their scope. I have therefore cut back on some of…
Posted inStatistics
Defending The Canceled Mask Paper; Gain-Of-Lethality Confirmed?; Time We Quit These Updates? — Coronavirus Update LXXII
NOTHING MORTAL GOES FOREVER Should we quit these updates? I know I've grown sick of them. Are you? Maybe replace them with articles when warranted, such as what our dear…
Posted inStatistics
Random Means Unknown Cause — And Nothing More
I've used this gimmick many times, so regular readers, please, shhh. I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 4. What is it? To you the number is random, because…
Posted inCulture
The Awesome Occult Powers Of White Supremacists
It's difficult to remember how big parapsychology was in the 1970s. It was at that time taken seriously, or at least not dismissed, by a large number of what we…