Search Results for “probability” – Page 50

Climate Attribution Studies Can’t Be Trusted — New Paper

THE SKY HAS FALLEN Benny Peiser at the Global Warming Policy Foundation asked me to investigate so-called climate attribution studies. I did. They don't work. Since that's too brief a…

Statistics

Breaking: Wind From Tropical Cyclones Cure Hemorrhoids

Lost count of the number of "studies" that feel---not think---that they must invoke terror to justify their undertaking. Take this peer-reviewed gem from Nature Communications by Robbie M. Parks and…

Podcast

Patrick Coffin Show: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs

Patrick was kind enough to have me on his podcast. Here's his show notes (his title too): #223: How You Can Tell They’re Lying About Covid—Dr. William M. Briggs “There…

Statistics

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday's post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his "simple rules". It…

Philosophy

Cognitive Bayes & Rationality: Why Theoretical Explanations Charging People With Conspiracy Theories Fails

Fun quiz time! This is some data: x = c(0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1). Something caused that data to be. I know what it is,…

Philosophy Statistics

Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant…

Philosophy Statistics

Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails

Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug's latest. Rather, Alexander's (and Moldbug's? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is.…

Philosophy Statistics

Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, "Doc, I saw that new…

Dana on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
I was cured of buying lotto tickets about 40 years ago when a Brisbane newspaper published an article about gambling,…
John M on Register Your Predictions For 2026!January 12, 2026
1. Substack stops copying social media on their homepage and when they realize Substack is for people who want to…
Brian (bulaoren) on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
It's even worse; "Handicap" is now a forbidden term.
hudbwu on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
Next time, Twitch livestream writing a computer program to make that bell-shaped graph. I'm sure there's a few people that…
NLR on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
The sports betting companies encourage people to risk money. It's fun, "everybody" is doing it, it's legal, you might be…