Search Results for “probability” – Page 86

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy

Hilarious “Proofs” Of God’s Non-Existence & Existence

Via Nate Winchester, Julian Ahlquist's collection of Proofs of God's Non-Existence, which were in "response to a similar list Hundreds of Proofs of God's Existence by 'Godless Geeks'" There's no…

Statistics

Twenty Tips For Interpreting Scientific Claims

Title of today's post is taken from article of the same name in Nature by William Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter, Mark Burgman. Several readers asked me to comment. I'll assume you've…

Philosophy Statistics

Causation And Correlation

Our friend Christopher Monckton of Brenchley wrote a piece over at Anthony Watt's place in which he said (Reader KA Rodgers asked me to have a look): CO2 concentration continues…

Philosophy Statistics

What Regression Really Is: Part III

Read Part II Which x's to pick? Unfortunately, there is an infinite universe from which to draw---and here we come closer to resembles. It could be, for instance, a person's…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Observational Versus Controlled Trials

Received this email from a reader: I took on board all I read on your website, and it has created confusion in my mind. I have been reading Ioannidis and…

Philosophy

Does 1+2+3+… Really Equal -1/12?

Infinity is not a number, it is a place. It lies just to the left of the Undiscovered Country. Nobody knows what it is like there, because nobody has seen…

E C on Reproducibility Crises Will Be Forever With Us Until We Abandon Classical StatisticsMay 10, 2025
If I understand your linked article in Academic Questions correctly, it seems frequentism is a classic example of tunnel-vision; or,…
Paul Murphy on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
hey doc Steven Hayward's substack post on "Pope Bob" https://stevehayward.substack.com/p/pope-bob includes an image and summary of a book on "evaluative…
JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Probability is defined on a sigma field. But what exactly is a sigma field? In simpler terms, it represents the…
Johnno on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 9, 2025
What are the political leanings of the naturally elotrocuted, and can we use them for our cause, or does their…
Paul Fischer on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Always thought-provoking, William. The comments section’s a bit hostile today. To really grasp what Matt is driving at, you have…