Search Results for “probability” – Page 93

Answering A Critic On Sampling Variability

Alfred 'Dominant Strategy' (ADS) is confused that "William Briggs is confused on sampling variability". I wrote an article highlighting misconceptions and mistakes people make when thinking about sampling variability, and…

Culture

I Made “Climate Denial MVP”!

Gollum (who's he? see this post on the political witch hunt of scientists) wrote yesterday to announce that a group of us made the "Climate Denial MVP" List. I admit…

Philosophy Statistics

Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept

https://twitter.com/Bigdatanalysis/status/573739862924353536 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by "springing forward", we continue our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles next week. If you can't read the tweet above, it says…

Statistics

Der Spiegel Asks About Global-Warming-Causes-Syrian-Civil-War Paper

That peer-reviewed Colin Kelley et al. paper "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought", which the traddy media is portraying like Wired did---e.g. How…

Statistics

Journal Bans Wee P-values—And Confidence Intervals! Break Out The Champagne!

Well, it banned all p-values, wee or not. And confidence intervals! The journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology, that is. Specifically, they axed the "null hypothesis significance testing procedure".…

Fun

Coming Clean On My Global Warming Funding

Since the "Why models run hot" flap started a witch hunt in Congress, I thought I'd give the complete story of my funding for any work of any kind done…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Johnno on Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital TwinsFebruary 1, 2026
So instead of any actual fieldwork and gathering physical materials and samples, will the scientists now be using digital replicas…
Robert Berger on Physics & Vertical Causation: The End of Quantum Reality by Wolfgang Smith ReviewedFebruary 1, 2026
Thel Physics comments miss the entire metaphysical point ! (for the most part) We are now getting back to essence.…
Robert Berger on Wolfgang Smith’s Vision Of Oneness — Guest Post by Ianto WattFebruary 1, 2026
Whatever failures there are in the human writings and thought of Wolfgang Smith, he is the best mind on Physics…
Paul Fischer on Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time SeriesJanuary 30, 2026
Great lecture, William. Took a year of time series in grad school...all math, zero discussion of how fragile “trends” really…
Martin on Fatima, Russia & You, Part IV — Guest Post by Ianto WattJanuary 30, 2026
Brilliant. Thank you.