Posted inFun
Coming Clean On My Global Warming Funding
Since the "Why models run hot" flap started a witch hunt in Congress, I thought I'd give the complete story of my funding for any work of any kind done…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III
Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I
Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…
Posted inStatistics
Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty
A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”
What's the difference between "independence" and "irrelevance" and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely…
Posted inStatistics
That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…
Posted inStatistics
Do Sunspots Shorten Lives By 5.2 years?
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. I have no idea what the answer to that question is. And I doubt…