Search Results for “probability” – Page 95

Journal Bans Wee P-values—And Confidence Intervals! Break Out The Champagne!

Well, it banned all p-values, wee or not. And confidence intervals! The journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology, that is. Specifically, they axed the "null hypothesis significance testing procedure".…

Fun

Coming Clean On My Global Warming Funding

Since the "Why models run hot" flap started a witch hunt in Congress, I thought I'd give the complete story of my funding for any work of any kind done…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Philosophy Statistics

Resolved: Statisticians To Cease Using “Independence”, Change To “Irrelevance”

What's the difference between "independence" and "irrelevance" and why does that difference matter? This typical passage is from The First Course in Probability by Sheldon Ross (p. 87) is lovely…

Statistics

That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…

shawn marshall on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
unfortunately I think that is the reality....
Cary D Cotterman on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
There are only eight countries, apart from the U.S., that have nuclear weapons. Iran has (or had) missiles that could…
shawn marshall on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
i never watch Hannity or Fox. I'm afraid you misapprehend the fatalistic Shia eschatology. Your flippancy and arrogance are indicative…
Tars Tarkas on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
Hey Shawn Marshall, stop watching Hannity and grow up. WTF do "mullahs" in Iran have to do with us? How…
shawn marshall on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 6, 2026
I do pray that the Iranians will be freed from the Mullahs who I do believe want to fashion a…