Search Results for “probability” – Page 99

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…

Philosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part III (update)

Read Part I, Part II. The text has again been expanded and corrected. We have our model in hand. "Has the ability", our model, says (see Part II) that the…

Culture

The Most Curious Use Of ‘Only’ You Will Ever See

Let's begin with a disclaimer: Yours Truly is not a psychologist, nor does he have psychiatric training. Therefore his use of lunatic, insane git, mentally deficient in the highest degree,…

Statistics

The Future of Scientific Publications: Abandon Journals?

It took three years--or was it four?---for a paper I submitted to the august journal Annals of Statistics to wend its way through peer review. When it came back to…

Statistics

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…

Fun Statistics

Casino Deals Unshuffled Cards

As a break from things serious, consider this scenario: In a New Jersey casino, you walk up to an electronic slot machine, stick in a buck and punch the buttons.…

Culture Fun Statistics

Help Wanted With Ideas For Survey About Who Will Win Presidency

It's the start of the long, last week of summer (and since I've spent the bulk of it in San Francisco, there was no summer at all), where most of…

Culture Philosophy Statistics

We Are All Eugenicists Now: New Test Identifies 3,500 Genetic “Faults” In Fetuses — Update

See the crucial update below. I was assured, several times, that my second son was to be my first daughter. The doctors who told me this had performed certain tests,…

Hagfish Bagpipe on Eggs and ‘PFAS-Easter’ or Selling Fear on the Day of Resurrection — Guest Post by Jaap HanekampMay 13, 2025
Reminds me of the cyclamate and saccharin scares of the 60s-70s. Media hyping bladder tumors in lab rats supposedly caused…
dumbest.ox on Academics Call Pregnancy A DiseaseMay 12, 2025
President Carter had the federal rules changed to reclassify normal pregnancy / birth, as illness / disease, in order to…
spetzer86 on Academics Call Pregnancy A DiseaseMay 12, 2025
I'm thinking glasses wouldn't help given that the act is usually done in close proximity and in the dark. Even…
Cary Cotterman on Academics Call Pregnancy A DiseaseMay 12, 2025
Sperm is a pathogen Pregnancy is not normal Pregnancy is a disease Our young people are being taught by lunatics.
Brian (bulaoren) on Academics Call Pregnancy A DiseaseMay 12, 2025
Wait...What?... If pregnancy is a pathology, should the sex act be done only in moderation; "Just till we need glasses?"…