Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Humble Tautology And Probability
Start with the premises P1 = "All men are mortal" and P2 = "Socrates is a man" and from them we want to know the status of the conclusion C…
Posted inCulture
The Most Curious Use Of ‘Only’ You Will Ever See
Let's begin with a disclaimer: Yours Truly is not a psychologist, nor does he have psychiatric training. Therefore his use of lunatic, insane git, mentally deficient in the highest degree,…
Posted inStatistics
The Future of Scientific Publications: Abandon Journals?
It took three years--or was it four?---for a paper I submitted to the august journal Annals of Statistics to wend its way through peer review. When it came back to…
Posted inStatistics
Lewandowsky’s Confusion About Statistics
Still at conference, so just a short plug for learning about which you speak. Stephan Lewandowsky, who believes JFK shot at the moon landings and that's why the globe has…
Posted inStatistics
Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?
An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That
Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
In Defense Of Peter Kreeft: A Response To Brafford
Peter Kreeft, a philosopher whose surname does not sound like it is spelled, placed in Touchstone the article "Clashing Symbols: The Loss of Aristotelian Logic & the Social, Moral, &…
Posted inStatistics
Anthropogenic Forcing Signals Not Significant? New Polynomial Cointegration Test Paper
I have been asked by a number of people to comment on a new paper that purportedly shows that "statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significantly anthropogenic…
