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How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part I New (Free) Software Introduction
Posted inClass Statistics

How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part I New (Free) Software Introduction

Introduction Here's what we always want, but never get, using the old ways of doing statistics: The probability that some proposition Y is true given certain assumptions. Like this:     …
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New Paper! Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof
Posted inStatistics

New Paper! Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof

Here is a link to the PDF. Briggs, William M., 2019. Everything Wrong with P-Values Under One Roof. In Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics, V Kreinovich, NN Thach, ND…
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Making P-values Weer To Achieve Significance Won’t Help
Posted inStatistics

Making P-values Weer To Achieve Significance Won’t Help

Mini-paper out in JAMA by Matt Vassar and pals: "Evaluation of Lowering the P Value Threshold for Statistical Significance From .05 to .005 in Previously Published Randomized Clinical Trials in…
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Road Rage: Paper Says Living Near Road Causes Dementia
Posted inStatistics

Road Rage: Paper Says Living Near Road Causes Dementia

Dust is thrilling researchers these days. Dust, or the more scientific sounding PM2.5, is the next greatest struggle after global warming. We've already seen attempts to prove dust, as measured…
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Black Coffee Drinkers Are Sadistic Psychos: It’s Science!
Posted inStatistics

Black Coffee Drinkers Are Sadistic Psychos: It’s Science!

Headline New study says you might be a psychopath if you like black coffee A new study from the University of Innsbruck in Austria says that people who drink their…
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Quack Quack: 25% of Students “Traumatized” By 2016 Election
Posted inStatistics

Quack Quack: 25% of Students “Traumatized” By 2016 Election

Headline 25% of students say they were traumatized by the 2016 election, study says A quarter of students found the 2016 so traumatic they now report symptoms of PTSD, according…
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Posted inClass Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part XI

Review! We left off with comparing the standard, out-of-the-box linear regression with our multinomial predictive observable model. The great weaknesses of the regression were probability leakage (giving positive probability to…
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How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis
Posted inClass Statistics

How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis

Query: now that I'm a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don't see how they'd help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via…
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  1. Paul Murphy on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    hey doc Steven Hayward's substack post on "Pope Bob" https://stevehayward.substack.com/p/pope-bob includes an image and summary of a book on "evaluative…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Probability is defined on a sigma field. But what exactly is a sigma field? In simpler terms, it represents the…

  3. Johnno on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 9, 2025

    What are the political leanings of the naturally elotrocuted, and can we use them for our cause, or does their…

  4. Paul Fischer on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Always thought-provoking, William. The comments section’s a bit hostile today. To really grasp what Matt is driving at, you have…

  5. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

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