THE CLASS
UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Links to YouTube, Rumble, Bitchute, and Twitter inside each class. Jayne's Book (first part). Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2:…
Posted inClass Statistics
Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!
The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…
Posted inStatistics
Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners
Today's post title is stolen from a paper by the same name "Cohort Increases In Sex With Same-Sex Partners: Do Trends Vary by Gender, Race, and Class?" in Gender &…
Posted inStatistics
Over-Certainty of Polygenic Scores
This is really a Part I of a series of articles about the latest trend (fad?) in statistical biology, but I didn't want to label it that way, which would…
Posted inStatistics
New Research: “We know the jail system harms the public rather than keeping us safe”
Sandhya Kajeepeta, who, like myself, boasts of a "(grating) Michigan accent", tweeted "We know the jail system harms the public rather than keeping us safe. In this new @AMJPublicHealth paper…
Posted inStatistics
Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus
Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…
Posted inStatistics
New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
Posted inStatistics
On That Climate-Change-Now-Detectable-From-Any-Single-Day-Of-Weather Paper
The peer-reviewed paper is "Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale" by Sippel and Knutti an others in Nature: Climate Change. Look at that…