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Posted inStatistics

Der Spiegel Asks About Global-Warming-Causes-Syrian-Civil-War Paper

That peer-reviewed Colin Kelley et al. paper "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought", which the traddy media is portraying like Wired did---e.g. How…
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Posted inStatistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…
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Posted inStatistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
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Posted inStatistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…
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Posted inStatistics

Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature

You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…
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Posted inStatistics

Men Who Post ‘Selfies’ Are Psychopathic, Narcissistic. Science Says So!

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Far be it for Yours Truly to disagree with a peer-reviewed study. It must…
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Posted inStatistics

Do Sunspots Shorten Lives By 5.2 years?

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. I have no idea what the answer to that question is. And I doubt…
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Posted inStatistics

Real Climate Temperature “Trend” Article Gets It Wrong (Like So Many Do)

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…
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