There is that which is, and that which we can know about what is. Both feed the other. Probability belongs to the second subject. If you want to know what…

Claims of control are almost always false or misleading. "Controlling for" sex or age or anything in probability models is not true control. It's just adding things to models. Vast…

(My enemies changed the title. I have changed it back. They will pay for this insolence.) Daylight savings time is something that angers many performatively, more than in truth. If…

I beg your indulgence, dear reader. Please stay with me for these introductory paragraphs. I want to teach you how to read these papers so that you are well equipped…

This classic column originally ran 31 July 2008. I edited it to provide a working link to the paper and to add the author's Fig. 1. I have no idea,…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

Every scientist loves to say that of theories and models that are falsifiable are "scientific". Alas, this excludes by nature and in practice all models and theories used by scientists.…