This classic column originally ran 31 July 2008. I edited it to provide a working link to the paper and to add the author's Fig. 1. I have no idea,…

We want Pr(Hypothesis true|Evidence) but get Pr(Data we didn't see | Hypothesis false). This makes no sense, but I promise that is what is done. My friends, it gets real…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

Every scientist loves to say that of theories and models that are falsifiable are "scientific". Alas, this excludes by nature and in practice all models and theories used by scientists.…

Here's the panicky headline: "Long periods of extreme heat can accelerate biological age, scientists say". Longer periods of extreme heat has been found to accelerate biological age in older adults…

I remind you, yet again, that all models only say what they are told to say. A bland truism. Unless you forget it. Let's now look at two "climate change"…

Keeping with Fadeback Fridays, which is soon to be an international success, this classic post, which originally ran on 23 December 2016. It's yet another in an endless supply of…

Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/TOXMcJ2k?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter…