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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
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National Association of Scholars: Is Science Broken? (Make a guess!)
Posted inPodcast Statistics

National Association of Scholars: Is Science Broken? (Make a guess!)

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Last week…
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Forecast: Massive Increase In “Climate Change” Propaganda On Its Way
Posted inCulture

Forecast: Massive Increase In “Climate Change” Propaganda On Its Way

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. You have…
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Excess Deaths “Attributed To Heat And Cold”
Posted inStatistics

Excess Deaths “Attributed To Heat And Cold”

The National Association of Scholars is hosting a webinar today, 3 PM EST: Is Science Broken? featuring Yours Truly. Free, but you have to register. Recall there is no such…
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Reconciling Mike Flynn & Fr Ripperger On Evolution: Creation or Completion of New Essences?
Posted inPhilosophy

Reconciling Mike Flynn & Fr Ripperger On Evolution: Creation or Completion of New Essences?

The National Association of Scholars is hosting a webinar this Friday, 3 PM EST: Is Science Broken? featuring Yours Truly. Free, but you have to register. The Beginning Before we…
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  1. C- Marie on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I understood much of the logic of this. Thank you, Matt! God bless, C- Marie

  2. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…

  4. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    hudbwu, You could be right.

  5. hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

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