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Posted inStatistics

Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature

You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…
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That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous
Posted inStatistics

That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…
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NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model
Posted inStatistics

NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Here's our press release. See also the Daily Mail. WHAT WENT WRONG? A major…
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Posted inStatistics

How’d We Do On Our 2014 Predictions?

This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Time to tally. As has become our tradition, each New Year's Eve we see…
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Posted inStatistics

On The Attribution Of A Single Event To Climate Change

Rained yesterday here in the city of cities. Must be because of climate change, right? Hey. The climate did change and it did rain. What more evidence do you want?…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed

People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
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Posted inStatistics

Can We Predict The Unpredictable?

The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today's post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To

We're finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article "Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series." Let's return to the Screaming Willies.…
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  1. C-Marie on AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)January 14, 2026

    Yay for the Truth!! God bless, C-Marie

  2. John M on AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)January 14, 2026

    I asked an AI: if the big bang theory is true, where is the center of the universe? The answer…

  3. hudbwu on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 14, 2026

    @R W Pearson: Okay good, we're talking about it. If I understood Correia correctly, he offers the following defence: "the…

  4. Tim on AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)January 14, 2026

    Absolutely true! After rephrasing or submitting more factual information, I get even more dismissive replies. Yeah, there are certainly "No…

  5. John M on Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis ShootingJanuary 14, 2026

    I think law enforcement needs to revisit how they respond to vehicles. If a vehicle is classified as a deadly…

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