Posted inStatistics
Response To Trenberth Over “Why Models Run Hot”
Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. A reporter from Nature who could not be brought to understand science was more important than fallacy…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I
Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…
Posted inPhilosophy
Question Of The Week: Will Religions Try to Convert Superintelligent AI? No
The ever hopeful transhumanist-but-still-human Zoltan Istvan is back asking "When Superintelligent AI Arrives, Will Religions Try to Convert It?" The answer is a qualified no. The qualification? There won't be…
Posted inStatistics
Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature
You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…
Posted inStatistics
That “1-in-27 Million Chance That Earth’s Record Hot Streak Is Natural” Is Preposterous
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. We met a lot of bad statistics over the years, but this one wins…
Posted inStatistics
NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Here's our press release. See also the Daily Mail. WHAT WENT WRONG? A major…
Posted inStatistics
How’d We Do On Our 2014 Predictions?
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Time to tally. As has become our tradition, each New Year's Eve we see…