Posted inStatistics
How’d We Do On Our 2014 Predictions?
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Time to tally. As has become our tradition, each New Year's Eve we see…
Posted inStatistics
On The Attribution Of A Single Event To Climate Change
Rained yesterday here in the city of cities. Must be because of climate change, right? Hey. The climate did change and it did rain. What more evidence do you want?…
Posted inBook review Statistics
The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed
People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
Posted inStatistics
Can We Predict The Unpredictable?
The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today's post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To
We're finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article "Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series." Let's return to the Screaming Willies.…
Posted inFun
Upcoming Probability & Statistics Talks! The Climate, Over-Certainty & More!
Update Classic Posts page link fixed. When & Where I have no idea. As soon as somebody hires me to give them. Since I am out of the system, I…
Posted inStatistics
Predicting Doom—Guest Post by Thomas Galli
I am not a statistics wizard; an engineer, I value the predictive power of statistics. Indeed, if one can precisely control variables in the design of an experiment, statistics-based prediction…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?
When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com's Senate prediction, it said "Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority." There were also words that the "probability that each party will win control…