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Featured Articles Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online The Probability Of A Head In A Coin Flip Is 1, Not 1/2 The Great Global Warming—A.K.A.…
Posted inStatistics
What Evidence Would Persuade You That Man-Made Climate Change Is Real?
Somebody named Ronald Bailey (he isn't anybody I know) at the inaptly named Reason asked the good question which heads this post. Second thought: the question is awful. No scientist…
Posted inCulture
When Should The Church Meddle In Science? Guest Post by Bob Kurland
A longer version of this essay can be found at Kurland's site. Science can purify religion from error and superstition; religion can purify science from idolatry and false absolutes. Each…
Posted inStatistics
Der Spiegel Asks About Global-Warming-Causes-Syrian-Civil-War Paper
That peer-reviewed Colin Kelley et al. paper "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought", which the traddy media is portraying like Wired did---e.g. How…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
For The Love Of Models: A Global Warming Allegory
A very odd thing happened in Science. Turns out a famous weatherman has been forecasting highs in the 60s then 70s for New York City all winter long. But the…
Posted inStatistics
Response To Trenberth Over “Why Models Run Hot”
Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. A reporter from Nature who could not be brought to understand science was more important than fallacy…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
Posted inStatistics
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I
Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…