Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Causation And Correlation
Our friend Christopher Monckton of Brenchley wrote a piece over at Anthony Watt's place in which he said (Reader KA Rodgers asked me to have a look): CO2 concentration continues…
Posted inStatistics
A Survey Of The Perceptions Of Climate Scientists 2013: No Consensus
Earlier this year scientists were given a survey on their opinion of the state of climate science. This was administered by Dennis Bray & Hans von Storch at the Helmholtz…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Why Falsifiability, Though Flawed, Is Alluring: Part I
A theory is said not to be scientific unless it is falsifiable. This is an understandable definition, but as something philosophically useful it fails because most theories scientists hold are…
Posted inStatistics
How To Properly Handle Proxy Time Series Reconstructions
This is all made up data, so as not to hurt anybody's feelings. Also, this is a sketch. Everything can't be done in 700 words. We are interested in the…
Posted inStatistics
Scientific Forecasts, Not Scenarios, For Climate Policy—Guest Post by J. Scott Armstrong
The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they will sometimes be better or worse. Are things different now?…
Posted inStatistics
(Most) Everything Wrong With Time Series
It came out at my recent meeting that a compilation of everything wrong with time series was in order. A lot of this I've done before, and so, just as…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Logical Probability Data Analysis, Measurement Error Example
Read the introduction to this first. If you don't, you will be lost, lost, lost. Logical probability answer to B The answer to B follows from A. The picture is…
Posted inStatistics
End Of The World Set For 2047. Plan Accordingly
Bob Geldorf (and who the hell is he?) was off by seventeen years. But then I read he's a singer and no professional climatologist. Since he's some big hoo-hah celebrity,…