Posted inStatistics
How To Properly Handle Proxy Time Series Reconstructions
This is all made up data, so as not to hurt anybody's feelings. Also, this is a sketch. Everything can't be done in 700 words. We are interested in the…
Posted inStatistics
Scientific Forecasts, Not Scenarios, For Climate Policy—Guest Post by J. Scott Armstrong
The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they will sometimes be better or worse. Are things different now?…
Posted inStatistics
(Most) Everything Wrong With Time Series
It came out at my recent meeting that a compilation of everything wrong with time series was in order. A lot of this I've done before, and so, just as…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Logical Probability Data Analysis, Measurement Error Example
Read the introduction to this first. If you don't, you will be lost, lost, lost. Logical probability answer to B The answer to B follows from A. The picture is…
Posted inStatistics
End Of The World Set For 2047. Plan Accordingly
Bob Geldorf (and who the hell is he?) was off by seventeen years. But then I read he's a singer and no professional climatologist. Since he's some big hoo-hah celebrity,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Do Means Mean?
Update In order that it does not get lost over the weekend, part two of this post will run on Sunday. This is part one of a two part post,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Alternative To P-Values
I apologize for the abruptness of the notation. It will be understandable only to a few. I don't like to use it without sufficient background because the risk of reification…
Posted inStatistics
On The Intersection Of Scientist And Politicians—Guest Post by An Engineer
"An Engineer" is a gentleman who has practiced Civil, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering for more than 40 years. He has been granted patents for a number of practical inventions, and…