Posted inStatistics
Question About Non-Normal Distributions
Thanks to everybody who sent in links, story tips, and suggestions. Because of my recent travel and pressures of work, I'm (again) way behind in answering these. I do appreciate…
Posted inStatistics
Müller lite: Why Every Scientist Needs a Classical Training—Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
His Lordship sent this around to all the usual suspects asking that it be given a wide audience. I'm traveling today. About 18 months ago, as soon as I heard…
Posted inStatistics
Richard Muller’s Political Move—BEST is Best? Sophisticated Statistics!
Our Berkeley Earth approach used sophisticated statistical methods developed largely by our lead scientist, Robert Rohde, which allowed us to determine earth land temperature much further back in time. Ah,…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II
McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I
Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance
Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong
My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…
Posted inStatistics
Does Averaging Incorrect Data Give A Result That Is Less Incorrect? Climate Modeling
Another question from the statistics mailbag: Dear Matt: I recently got into a discussion with a CAGW "believer" and of course the discussion turned to global average temperature (whatever that…