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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Global Average Temperature: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference

Update This post is mandatory reading for those discussing global average temperature. I mean it: exceedingly brief and given only with respect to a univariate time series, such as operationally…
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Posted inBook review Culture

Works Of High Seriousness: Grand Strategies: Literature, Statecraft, and World Order by Charles Hill

Grand Strategies: Literature, Statecraft, and World Order by Charles Hill What a stimulating journey through the greatest works of literature, interpreted with a mind towards statecraft. Hill wants us to…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Do The Rich Pay Their Fair Share?

The answer depends on which country you live. In the United States, the rich not only pay their "fair" share, they pay more. Even stronger, wealthy American citizens pay more…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Are The Masters Winners Getting Younger And Better? Predictions Update

Update As of this writing, the 2012 Masters is halfway through, so it's a good time to re-examine the predictions made last April for this year's tournament. Scores have been…
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Posted inStatistics

Overstretching Climate Change Attribution

Says Camille Parmesan and others, "The biological world is responding rapidly to a changing climate, but attempts to attribute individual impacts to rising greenhouse gases are ill-advised" (from the first…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Taxing The Rich Always Fails Eventually

The solution Mr Obama proposed yesterday for increasing the federal budget was to raise taxes. He did not suggest taking a one-time chunk of money from those who earned it…
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Posted inCulture

Predict The Next Strangest Government Regulation

Perhaps the most fantastical regulation to launch recently from the collective hive-mind of the federal bureaucracy is the one which administrates the very breath of life. Yes, the Environmental Protection…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

India Aborting Girls At Full Speed: Sex Selection And Demographics

Science is great. It---"it" is always an it, an invisible entity, a guiding sapience, an intelligence that can be looked to for guidance---can now us tell the sex of a…
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