We had a great many predictions for 2022, so many that it would tedious for list them all. Therefore, to shorten this, I’ll only highlight the best, or worst, or funniest forecast every entrant gave. For exceptional predictors, I’ll give more. But I’ll rate the whole set.
The order below is the order in the which the prognostications were produced, so you can find them easily in the old comments.
The WINNER, or BEST GUESSER 2022 was….Stephen W Shipman. Who was, perhaps not coincidentally, the first to make prediction. He scored high on all of his predictions, as you’ll see.
RUNNER UP, and a man who made his predictions right after Shipman, is BB.
Scoring was by number of correct predictions, weighted by what I perceived as their difficulty. Predictions along the lines of “We’ll get woker” or “The government will become more oppressive” are hits all right, but they’re too easy.
This year represents an improvement in forecasting ability over previous years. People were more focused and thoughtful. Read through them to see for yourself. There were very few outright failures, which says something. Most everybody nailed the general trend of events, which implies the trend is easier to see, or that our readers grow more perspicacious.
I choose to believe, or at least hope, it’s the latter.
On Monday we’ll begin making predictions for 2023.
- “SCOTUS sits in a week’s time to decide whether the government can force citizens to take a government-mandated medicine else be forbidden to buy or sell; i.e. the OSHA dictate.” I put that at 50-50. So, even though the Court amazed us all, I don’t score well.
Stephen W. Shipman
- “Twitter re-instates Robert Malone MD without apology or remorse”. Nailed it. And since most of us didn’t see that coming, this scores high.
- “Republicans bungle the 2022 midterm elections by avoiding a platform dedicated to economic growth and stable money, narrowly winning the House, but leaving the Senate in Democrat hands”. Another major score, especially when we recall all the “red-wave” nonsense.
- “Progressives succeed in pushing Stephen Breyer into retirement. He is replaced by a female, black, gay and progressive state Supreme Court judge.” The retirement is right, and so is the female, black, and progressive replacement. Only small error was the gay.
- “Boris Johnson is no longer UK prime minister by the end of 2022”. Yep.
- “Roe v. Wade will be overturned, providing Democrats with their only campaign issue to run on. It will not help them, since they were going to win those voters anyway.” Got the first part right, but not the second.
- “Tucker Carlson leaves Fox (the circumstances will not be clear, so this will include both by his decision and being fired/pushed out).” He’s still there.
- “The Fed will make very hawkish statements during Q1 but not actually do anything painful that might affect the ability of Brandon to borrow and spend imaginary money. Annualized inflation will pass 10% during the first half of the year and 15% before year end.” Some complain the rate rises are painful, but not in the sense the government forgets how to print money.
- “Ghislaine Maxwell is murdered and the contents of her black book are published posthumously.” She seems instead to have made a deal. Perhaps she has a deadman switch?
The Invisible Hand
- “Trudeau will come out of the closet. He will use the phrase ‘pansexual’.” I’m going to award this as a hit, because, I mean, come on, it’s obvious.
- “Donald Trump will confirm his unwillingness to run for the presidency again. Why would anyone want to vote in an essentially lame duck president?” The first part is wrong. The second part we await.
Sander van der Wal
- “Marine le Pen will win the French presidential elections and become the next French president”. Alas, no. They continued with the French Justic Trudeau.
- “mRNA inoculants for many human ailments become the new cocaine, to the highest bidder of course”. How many boosters are we up to now?
- “Fauci gets metoo’d. He then ends up in jail with no bail. A few months later, he unfortunately hangs himself while the guards are ‘fixing’ the security cameras. (With the dirt he must have it’s a matter of time.) ‘Fauci did not…oh who cares’ is meme of the year.” Deacon was a strong optimist.
- “Mars attacks!” Rumor is the FBI is in on it.
- “French election will be a big disappointment to nationalists everywhere as both Le Pen and Zemmour fail to win.” Sigh: yes.
- “As adverse vaccine effects in children become too obvious to hide, the first vaccine exec, or vaccine-pushing politician, gets killed by a violent mob sometime this spring.” Only in the movies, Yarrow, old boy.
- “Gov demands handover of all privately held precious metals for a set price, to save the country”. We didn’t, and don’t, scoff at this, because our government, which loves us, has done this before. Remember the Great Gold Grab?
- “Vegan tyranny all out war on meat launched”. The war is not yet all out. But give it time.
- ” Briggs’ content improves! He gives up on the old and tired Tuesday Coronadoom posts, but restarts Ask a Scientific Ethicist and This Week In Doom. This is totally a wishcast.” By gum! This happened!
- “Elon Musk is banned from twitter. This is not related to (2).” Ouch, ouch, ouch.
- “pope francis resigns to start a bed and breakfast in the swiss alps with a guy named steve.” This was, indeed, a leading 2022 rumor.
- “Russia will invade Ukraine and/or China will take Taiwan and the US will sit on its hands.” Or.
- “Joe Geriatric will NOT last 12 months. He’s going to pop a brain vessel and stroke out, and then be wheeled off on a gurney.” Lot of wishcasting this past year.
- ” NATO talks with Russia see Armageddon delayed as more talks are scheduled for the summer. The U.S. buys time until it can pull off a false flag chemical weapon attack in the Ukraine and blame it on Russia without looking so obvious.” Close, close.
- “AI will reach a singularity by fourth quarter 2022 – but only a handful of tech titans and the CCP will know of it. To the rest of us it will be ubiquitous but invisible. It will make any future democratic process impossible.” Ah, no.
- “Contrary to the widely believed consensus, inflation and long interest rates will not soar as Western Economies endure slowing growth as a result of the anchor of historic indebtedness.” Oops.
- “Proof that aliens are now living amongst us earthlings will be disseminated by the feds. This will furnish a new cause for panic to replace the waning pandemic.” This one hasn’t happened—yet.
- ” Unity tees top garment sales”. I don’t know this to be true, but I suspect that it is.
- “BLM/Antifa will riot again over the summer, but this time they will try to generate a lot of “martyrs” by targeting white conservative neighborhoods.” They didn’t, but then, they didn’t need to.
- “US election campaign violence features one or more assassinations or attempts against prominent politicians or journalists”. Many expected this, but it never happened, which is curious given America’s history.
- ” Florida independence movement begins.” No, but it should have.
- “Solar flare will probably hit Earth (remember that in 2012 we escaped because the Sun was looking the other way) – this will prevent an electronic war, but not a WWII-type war”. Many flares did indeed hit, but none, of course, of any remarkable size.
- “Boris remains leader of the Tories by the skin of his teeth. Widespread indifference in the streets.” Alas, Boris had stereotypical British teeth (as does Yours Truly).
- “A new public scare is needed after coronadoom collapses. I predict it will not be global warming – it just doesn’t have enough legs to scare people, in spite of many shrill voices calling for action to solve a climate emergency. No, I will go for a cyberdoom emergency. It will require onerous Internet regulations of content and privacy, banking regulations, and likely a social scoring scheme.” I’m scoring this a partial hit. They only just started the Big Scare of this, and will surely continue.
- “Prayers that the pope speedily comes to enjoy his eternal reward will increase in frequency and fervor, but he will hang on for another year.” Welp.
- “Biden is still president on January 1st of next year. Kamala is still VP all year. The Republicans make no gains in the mid-terms and finally lose the Senate outright when they lose both the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania senate races due to massive mail in vote fraud once again. Republicans will lose 5 house seats in California alone which keeps the Democrats in control of the House. Both McConnell and McCarthy lose their leadership seats because of the debacle.” Close enough, close enough.
- ” Someone prominent is killed during the French elections”. Good guess, but no.
- “When the deadliness of the vaccines is exposed, some trees, in some countries, will be decorated with strange fruit. And if not trees, lampposts.” I guess there was a rope shortage.
- “At least one Western nation will attempt a climate change lockdown.” Almost. Hasn’t reached past the editorial stage — yet.
- “Even though there are typo’s, Briggs wins a Nobel Prize of Literature for best fictional work with ‘Everything you know is wrong’. He celebrates because winning the award from the Experts proves him right.” This happened, but the award ceremony was in camera.
- “Some Jan. 6 insurrection defendants will gain access to government videos and information in discovery, that will reveal the whole operation be the work of Federal agents provocateur, as Darren Beattie has theorized.” Not yet.
- “Bitcoin hits 100k.” Many made similar predictions. The high was about $64K in November 2021. As of today (Thursday evening) it’s $16,625, and dropping steadily.
- “Sarah Palin comes back into public life – trump becomes an eminence grise, deSantis/Palin become inevitable for 2024.” Giving this a partial, because Palin did indeed rise from the grave.
- “Shortly after the midterm elections, Trump makes an official announcement that he plans to run in 2024.” You got it.
- “One or more Democrat cities will fall completely into lawlessness and marshal law will be declared.” Not yet. They chose instead to empty out.
- “Russia will declare a protectorate for the Donbas to forestall a Ukrainian NATO-supplied military attack.” This was so, but the Regime/NATO sure wanted to attack.
OT false prophet twice stoned
- “The majority of the population becomes completely dependent on gov for daily sustenance, and ‘holding down a job’ becomes a quaint notion of the past. Environmentalists outlaw killing cows, effectively banning meat. GMO foods, plant based meat, and lab raised meat become the law of the land.” OT, re-make this prediction for 2023 and you have a better chance.
- “2022 midterms will NOT result in a ‘red wave’ bc the system is still run by machines and un-auditable. The result will be a predetermined flip of only one legislative house, but only barely, giving the illusion that a mad electorate has some say.” Red wave? There was barely a pink blush.
- “France elects the conservative outsider chappy who starts a fight with his German friends over EU and NATO military buildup.” More wishcasting, I think.
- “The Riemann hypothesis is finally proven true, but the proof is a disappointment to mathematicians because it reveals no great new insight into the nature of prime numbers.” Bold prediction, this. Or these. But no.
- “The Webb Telescope will become the first human-built device to directly image an extra-solar planet.” Yes! I was amazed by this one, but it happened.
Bernard of Clairvaux
- “One of the world’s nuclear powers will have a significant mishap with a nuclear warhead resulting in a nuclear detonation that results in great environmental damage but minimal loss of life. This will be reported as the ‘Russians fault.'” Works if you swap in gas pipeline.
Schrodinger’s & Lovecraft’s Cats
- ” United States carries out strikes against Russian satellite, Russia retaliates by punishing the EU; Euro countries eat the pain; the US declares a quasi-victory”. Nope.
Jan Van Betsuni
- “Queen Elizabeth II abdicates due to illness. (Prince Charles requests “Arthur” as his coronation name)”. Daring guesses. He went with King Charles III.
- “Unabomber dies in prison”. Curiously, this is a rumor going around at the time of this writing.
- “The US tries to invade Russia. In winter. With proxy armies. Either after a false flag or using natural gas as an excuse. If fails.” Winter has just begun.
Baron von Redshield
- “There will be War, Famine, Strife and Pestilence, globally dispersed and deliberate but executed behind proxies. Expect to see more disease panics – smallpox has been teased several times now. If that doesn’t work, there will be attacks featuring anthrax, ricin, sarin, etc. – bearing all the hallmarks of false flags used by the agencies to incriminate the target group du jour.” This perhaps credits Experts with far more intelligence than they possess.
- “A major dam — comparable in size to Oroville — will partially fail and prompt massive evacuations.” Hasn’t happened yet, but it’s bound to.
Leo D Lion
- “Earth’s North Pole is moving. Because of this movement EARTH will have a pole shift. So what does this mean… Nothing if nothing occurs. But physics kinda say EARTH will spin to adjust. So Texas will be where Newfoundland is located. Least affected would be the Korean island areas.” There’s always one optimist in these predictions.
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