Before the 2009 season began, I developed a very simple predictive1 model based solely on each NFL team's historical record. Here is what was said about the model: I used…
The Scott Brown, Martha Coakley race is over. The results are not surprising nor undesirable. This is because anybody who dares call another---close your eyes if you cannot stand foul…
Today's post is at Quirk's, the well known trade journal and marketing research review. If you want to read the article on-line at Quirk's, registration is required, but free. You…
Read Part II : Download the Quirk’s article. Predictive statistics differs from classical (frequentist and Bayesian) practices because it focuses on observables and not metaphysical entities. Observables are the data…
Read Part I : Download the Quirk’s article. To understand why ordinary regression assumptions are bad, we need to look at some (new data) scenarios. Suppose that Bob had a…
David Lavers is the lead author in a GRL paper "A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications." Lavers et al. checked eight different climate models and…