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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
March 12, 2026
On Not Reading
March 11, 2026
Posted inStatistics

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Posted by By Briggs April 20, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Posted by By Briggs April 16, 2026
Continue Reading
Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For Victims
Posted inStatistics

Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For Victims

Pity me. I just had a paper rejected because, as one reviewer said, "Although your cure for cancer seems genuine, and would likely help people suffering from that dread disease,…
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Little Nate’s Plan To Save The World
Posted inStatistics

Little Nate’s Plan To Save The World

Guffaw is not a word met on the street, but is seen in books and other literary matter, and until last week I had never heard anybody say it. I…
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Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education Causes Mass Squealing
Posted inStatistics

Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education Causes Mass Squealing

Dartmouth President Sian Leah Beilock reacted to the Trump Administration's Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education by saying the university would accept no new grant money, that professors would…
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Posted inStatistics

Stay The Course: Have Some Class

One thing that bothers our guys is microplastics. Tiny bits of plastic, made from manufacturing everything, that make their way through the world, yes, even into our food and water,…
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Last Call For Alcohol-Cancer Papers
Posted inStatistics

Last Call For Alcohol-Cancer Papers

Time (sigh) for yet another example of the scrofulous, not to say ubiquitous, Epidemiologist Fallacy. This is peer-reviewed-paper generating technique of declaring X CAUSES Y, but where X is never…
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UFO Hits United Flight. All Survive. This Time!
Posted inStatistics

UFO Hits United Flight. All Survive. This Time!

How do you like my New & Improved title style? Is it click-baity (or is it baitey) enough? I was also thinking of Attack From Space Nearly Downs Aircraft. The…
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Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970s
Posted inStatistics

Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970s

The scheduler has been busted, and is not sending emails out on time. I only just now noticed this post. My apologies. Cover your ears, ladies. I'm about to let…
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Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right Way
Posted inStatistics

Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right Way

Claims of control are almost always false or misleading. "Controlling for" sex or age or anything in probability models is not true control. It's just adding things to models. Vast…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026

    @Cary Motorcycle accident? No, that was due to covid.

  2. Cary D Cotterman on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026

    In the mid '70s I was the janitor at Cal Tech's Kerkhoff Marine Laboratory, where they studied the effects of…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026

    I'm waiting for members of the California Coastal Commission to start disappearing.

  4. Bill Hankel on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026

    Thank you for your application of common sense (and math!) to this issue. I have never been a conspiracy theorist,…

  5. Lucy Tucker on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026

    You’re the best?????

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April 2026
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