Is Trump a Russian Asset? (This question accounts for the change in banner image this week.) What happens to belief when people learn new evidence about this curious proposition? Theory…

This is a revamped and updated classic post with new material. It first appeared on 6 February 2020. It's time to revisit this topic, as we'll see below. Polygenic scores…

Laplace infamously calculated the probability, given his evidence, the sun would rise in the east tomorrow at (something like) 0.9999995. Many objected, saying it's much higher. Who was right? Laplace!…

We did this years ago, but it's time for a refresh for new readers. You make a bet with a bookie. You don't want X to happen, where "X" can…

I blew my prediction that the left would dump Biden and install Gruesome Newsom in his place, fortify the election in his favor, and so cement permanent leftist rule (blog/Substack).…

Remember! Everybody can and should read Part I. Part III today requires the Class background. Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Video https://videopress.com/v/rGqKBnKk?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube * Twitter -…