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Latest Articles
Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters
June 12, 2025
Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores
June 11, 2025
AI & The Dilemma Of Technology
June 10, 2025
What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?
June 9, 2025
Class 53: Laplace Was Right!
June 5, 2025
Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out
June 4, 2025
Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best
June 3, 2025
Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting
June 2, 2025
Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters
May 29, 2025
IQ Is Not Intelligence
May 28, 2025
What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?
May 27, 2025
Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula
May 22, 2025
Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?
May 21, 2025
A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food
May 20, 2025
What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?
May 19, 2025
Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance
May 15, 2025
The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic
May 14, 2025
Eggs and ‘PFAS-Easter’ or Selling Fear on the Day of Resurrection — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp
May 13, 2025
Academics Call Pregnancy A Disease
May 12, 2025
Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models
May 8, 2025
Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?
May 7, 2025
Posted inStatistics

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Posted by By Briggs June 12, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

Posted by By Briggs June 11, 2025
Continue Reading
Who’s Better at Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls?
Posted inStatistics

Who’s Better at Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls?

Keeping with Fadeback Fridays, which is soon to be an international success, this classic post, which originally ran on 23 December 2016. It's yet another in an endless supply of…
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How The Enlightenment Led To Contraception (And Other Forms of Anti-Natal Behavior)
Posted inStatistics

How The Enlightenment Led To Contraception (And Other Forms of Anti-Natal Behavior)

We continue our leisurely and in-depth study of the works of David Stove. We're still with his book On Enlightenment. This article is long, so if you're short of time,…
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Science Model Told To Say Masks Work Discovers Masks Work
Posted inStatistics

Science Model Told To Say Masks Work Discovers Masks Work

Ladies and gentlemen---and you, too, Hagfish---I present to you Science! In the form of the picture that heads today's post. This delightful children's drawing, presumably winning the Special Needs Science…
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In Which Feynman Makes A Mistake: Negative Probabilities (Used In AI, QM, Finance)
Posted inStatistics

In Which Feynman Makes A Mistake: Negative Probabilities (Used In AI, QM, Finance)

Richard Feynman wasn't the first to suggest negative probabilities. That recognition goes to Paul Dirac, who introduced them and negative energies at the same time---because he thought these things explained…
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Class 31: How Views Diverge With New Evidence
Posted inStatistics

Class 31: How Views Diverge With New Evidence

Is Trump a Russian Asset? (This question accounts for the change in banner image this week.) What happens to belief when people learn new evidence about this curious proposition? Theory…
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Ridley Claims Materialists, Atheists, & Secular Humanists Don’t Preach
Posted inStatistics

Ridley Claims Materialists, Atheists, & Secular Humanists Don’t Preach

Keeping with our Friday Frolic them, this classic post ran originally on 24 November 2015, and it was brought to mind because I have a book review coming out soon…
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What Health Insurance Should Be, But Isn’t
Posted inStatistics

What Health Insurance Should Be, But Isn’t

Now that a Health Insurance guy has been whacked, it's time to review. Here is an expanded version of a thread I did on Twitter---which is all a repeat of…
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England Voted To Have Doctors Kill Their Patients
Posted inStatistics

England Voted To Have Doctors Kill Their Patients

The MPs in the UK passed a bill that will allow doctors to kill their patients. Maybe this is their solution to the rampant immoral immigration they can't make themselves…
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  1. hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025

    I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…

  2. NLR on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 11, 2025

    It's not just that the effects of technology are complex, it's that there's no guarantee that the results will fit…

  3. Cloudbuster on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 10, 2025

    "Anyway, murder is illegal, too, yet murder is still with us. So it shouldn’t be strange that forbidding scientists to…

  4. Mike Wooly on Cosmic Radiation, Clouds, & Global WarmingJune 10, 2025

    The IPCC report that anthropogenic warming is around 0.2 degrees C per decade. That's two hundredths of a degree C…

  5. Chaeremon on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 10, 2025

    IMHO the dot ai bubble, as direct follower of the dot com bubble, is trying to instantiate Gödel's incompleteness theorems,…

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