William M. Briggs

The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes

The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw.…

Culture

Your Most Important Choice: Part I — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Ante Up The world is a pretty confusing place. Considering the diverse nature of mankind's varied belief systems, that's not surprising. But that doesn't explain the depths of man's seeming…

Philosophy

Sphere Eversion, Free Will & Infinite Powers

Can a sphere be turned inside out, such that the outside becomes the inside, and vice versa, without creasing or tearing or poking a hole in the sphere? Obviously not.…

Statistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…

Class Statistics

So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example

Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: "GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ". Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Celestial Bodies Don’t Influence Our Bodies

Previous post. Today we start the second part of Book Three. Only another year and a half or so to go in Book Three. Then, finally, Book four! Our intellects…

Culture

The Week In Doom — Reality Based Ads Banned Edition

This has been a most busy week, the Doom accelerating, which accounts for the length of this post. Item The Case for Gay Reparation (NYT) Other countries are taking steps…

Statistics

Case Study Of How Easy It Is To Go Wrong

We used to talk a lot about the amygdala here: Yet Another Study "Proves" Liberal, Conservative Brain Differences (wee ps, amygdalas), Scientists Suddenly Discover Men Don't Understand Women (wee ps,…

fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026
Post script. Looks like you are hiding well, for now, from the AI in the sky. I asked it if…
fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026
Did not read the article, just copy/pasted the number list to ChatGPT and it got right back with: Yes —…
John M on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 26, 2026
Some of us dispensationalists don't adhere to any of the Hal Lindsey type of hype or trying bring in the…
Uncle Mike on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 25, 2026
C-Marie, for you to look up on this special day: "Chaire Kecharitomene"
C-Marie on It’s The End Of The World AgainMarch 25, 2026
Maybe sooner, is our individual going home to Heaven!! God bless, C-Marie

William M. Briggs

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously