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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Posted by By Briggs May 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Summary Against Modern Thought: You Have No Idea Of The Coming Good
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: You Have No Idea Of The Coming Good

Previous post. It's going to be better than you can think. HOW MAN'S EVERY DESIRE IS FULFILLED IN THAT ULTIMATE FELICITY 1 From the foregoing it is quite apparent that,…
Read More
This Week In Doom — Manliness Is Now A Sickness Edition
Posted inCulture

This Week In Doom — Manliness Is Now A Sickness Edition

Item The APA now defines manliness as a mental malady. https://twitter.com/cjprofman/status/1082355621045944321 You wondered what the practical effects of SJWs taking over universities would be. Well, this is as practical as…
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Another Proof Statistics Cannot Discover Cause
Posted inStatistics

Another Proof Statistics Cannot Discover Cause

We discussed this before, but since it has come up recently in personal discussions, I wanted to offer this clarification. Suppose we're in a standard epidemiological situation, or even a…
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Another Proof Against P-Value Reasoning
Posted inStatistics

Another Proof Against P-Value Reasoning

This isn't so much an extra proof, but a clarification on one of the proofs used in "Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof" (the first two arguments). Calculation of…
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Don’t Panic, But Intelligent Design Is Trivially True (Breathe, Breathe…)
Posted inPhilosophy

Don’t Panic, But Intelligent Design Is Trivially True (Breathe, Breathe…)

This post, a follow-up to yesterday's, originally ran 4 August 2016. What I mean by intelligent design (which is perhaps not what you mean by it) is that All There…
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Science Without God Is Incomplete
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Science Without God Is Incomplete

Either God exists or He does not. If He does not, then science does not matter. Nothing does. Anything anybody does is mere prejudice, whim. There is no good, there…
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Pick A Random Number From 1-10
Posted inStatistics

Pick A Random Number From 1-10

For even more edification, read this article in German: Denken Sie an eine Zahl zwischen 1 und 10. I'm picking a number between 1-10. What is the probability of you…
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Posted inCulture

This Week In Doom — It-Must-Be-Progressed Edition

Item Scientific communism "I Survived Communism -- Are You Ready For Your Turn?" By Zuzana Janosova Den Boer "It was scientifically proven that communism is the only social-economic system providing…
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  1. Johnno on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026

    This is your brain on the Theory of Evolution. Atheists should be restricted from any and all influential positions within…

  2. John M on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026

    My old brain still wants to read the acronym as the name Al (lower case L). That's why I like…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026

    Can there be an "Artificial Intelligence" that does not contain "Artifacts"?

  4. km on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 3, 2026

    What happens if you choose not to participate?

  5. Briggs on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 3, 2026

    Gareth, And thanks for the comment.

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