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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Posted by By Briggs May 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study
Posted inStatistics

A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study

We're going to soon talk more about "IQ" and "intelligence". I'm working on a more in-depth article on the subject to carefully explicate the vast over-certainties I see on "both…
Read More
How’d We Do On Our 2018 Predictions?
Posted inFun

How’d We Do On Our 2018 Predictions?

How'd we do? Let me put it this way: the Magic 8 Ball is in no danger of losing its position as top soothsayer. We were game, but overall there…
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Register Your Predictions For 2019!
Posted inFun

Register Your Predictions For 2019!

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number…
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The Probability Of Your Existence
Posted inStatistics

The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…
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The Monty Hall Problem — Solved!
Posted inStatistics

The Monty Hall Problem — Solved!

In honor of Monty Hall, who passed away this past weekend (in October 2017), this classic article (which ran long ago, the date lost due to the hacking, solving his…
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How Many Geniuses Are There?
Posted inStatistics

How Many Geniuses Are There?

This post originally appeared 15 September 2008. Here is a question I often give on exams: What is the probability that the next child to be born will be a…
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The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare
Posted inFun Statistics

The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare

This article, which originally appeared 20 May 2010, was inspired by reading Fredwin On Evolution, as wisely suggested by reader Bob Ludwick. At the bottom of Fred's piece, there appears…
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Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble

This post first appeared sometime before 2012, but I lost the original date due to the hacking. If you are a gambler, you'll be delighted to learn that there is…
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  1. Johnno on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026

    This is your brain on the Theory of Evolution. Atheists should be restricted from any and all influential positions within…

  2. John M on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026

    My old brain still wants to read the acronym as the name Al (lower case L). That's why I like…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026

    Can there be an "Artificial Intelligence" that does not contain "Artifacts"?

  4. km on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 3, 2026

    What happens if you choose not to participate?

  5. Briggs on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 3, 2026

    Gareth, And thanks for the comment.

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