William M. Briggs

A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study

We're going to soon talk more about "IQ" and "intelligence". I'm working on a more in-depth article on the subject to carefully explicate the vast over-certainties I see on "both…

Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2018 Predictions?

How'd we do? Let me put it this way: the Magic 8 Ball is in no danger of losing its position as top soothsayer. We were game, but overall there…

Fun

Register Your Predictions For 2019!

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number…

Statistics

The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…

Statistics

The Monty Hall Problem — Solved!

In honor of Monty Hall, who passed away this past weekend (in October 2017), this classic article (which ran long ago, the date lost due to the hacking, solving his…

Statistics

How Many Geniuses Are There?

This post originally appeared 15 September 2008. Here is a question I often give on exams: What is the probability that the next child to be born will be a…

Fun Statistics

The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare

This article, which originally appeared 20 May 2010, was inspired by reading Fredwin On Evolution, as wisely suggested by reader Bob Ludwick. At the bottom of Fred's piece, there appears…

Philosophy Statistics

Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble

This post first appeared sometime before 2012, but I lost the original date due to the hacking. If you are a gambler, you'll be delighted to learn that there is…

Dana on Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?March 30, 2026
I read a prediction sometime ago that by 2075, religion as we know it will not exist. Maybe there will…
C-Marie on Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?March 30, 2026
Do read up on Pope Benedict XVI and more, and Pope John Paul II .... do a search for "Catholic…
Uncle Mike on Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?March 30, 2026
There have been many bad popes, but also many wonderful ones. Pope Saint John Paul II was, well, saintly. His…
Brian (bulaoren) on Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?March 30, 2026
If our rights derive from God, and if the pope is God's primary interlocutor (Pontifax Maximus) can we sue the…
Robert Arvanitis on Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?March 30, 2026
You are correct in one point. The American enterprise, unlike all previous societies, is for all Men. Not based on…

William M. Briggs

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study

How’d We Do On Our 2018 Predictions?

Register Your Predictions For 2019!

The Probability Of Your Existence

The Monty Hall Problem — Solved!

How Many Geniuses Are There?

The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare

Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification