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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Liar’s Logic — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inCulture

Liar’s Logic — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

I enjoy listening to creative liars. Good lying takes work, you know. Hard work. You have to remember so many things you've said. And you've got to weave everything just…
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Proof Global Warming Is Asinine
Posted inStatistics

Proof Global Warming Is Asinine

Now that the Democrats are poised to triumph over the House, we shall soon daily hear from the likes of Nancy Pelosi and the appalling Raul Grijalva on the tedious…
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New Paper! Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof
Posted inStatistics

New Paper! Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof

Here is a link to the PDF. Briggs, William M., 2019. Everything Wrong with P-Values Under One Roof. In Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics, V Kreinovich, NN Thach, ND…
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New Paper! The Replacement For Hypothesis Testing
Posted inStatistics

New Paper! The Replacement For Hypothesis Testing

Here's a link to the PDF. Briggs, WM, HT Nguyen, D Trafimow, 2019. The Replacement for Hypothesis Testing. In Structural Changes and Their Econometric Modeling, Springer, V Kreinovich, S Sriboonchitta…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Eternity Lasts A Long Time
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Eternity Lasts A Long Time

Previous post. You MUST review. It's been a few weeks since our break, and doubtless your memory is sketchy about where we are and how we got here. THAT THOSE…
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The Week In Doom — Religion Of Man Triumphant Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — Religion Of Man Triumphant Edition

Item They're tightening the vise. As predicted, they're coming for your money. As one tweet down in the thread says (my emphasis): '"EU needs #digital single market. #Regulation should be…
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The Death of Christmas — Guest Post by Uncle Mike
Posted inCulture Statistics

The Death of Christmas — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

Last December 19th President Trump ordered the withdrawal of 2,000 American troops from Syria. The New York Times called the action "abrupt and chaotic" and reported: The decision brought a…
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A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study
Posted inStatistics

A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study

We're going to soon talk more about "IQ" and "intelligence". I'm working on a more in-depth article on the subject to carefully explicate the vast over-certainties I see on "both…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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