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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI
February 9, 2026
Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well
February 4, 2026
Impossible LSAT Statistics Question
February 3, 2026
How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)
February 2, 2026
Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series
January 29, 2026
Who Still Listens To AM Radio?
January 28, 2026
Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins
January 27, 2026
What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory
January 26, 2026
What A Winter
January 20, 2026
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
January 19, 2026
Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!
January 15, 2026
AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)
January 14, 2026
Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting
January 13, 2026
Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money
January 12, 2026
Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series
January 8, 2026
The Consent Fallacy
January 7, 2026
On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs
January 6, 2026
Register Your Predictions For 2026!
January 5, 2026
Happy New Year!
January 1, 2026
How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?
December 31, 2025
Why The Drake Equation Fails
December 30, 2025
Posted inStatistics

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Posted by By Briggs February 9, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Posted by By Briggs February 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inFun

Teaching: No Post, No Podcast, But One Book

Tried to do it, but ran out of time. Not only is there the teaching, and the radio shows, and the eating, and the talking too much, but there is…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The I-Have-Big-Muscles Fallacy

Harvard graduate walks down the street where a 50-lb sack of cement blocks his way. He reaches down to shift it but discovers that despite all his might the bulk…
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Posted inCulture

Orlando Shooting — Open Thread

Today is the first day of class; I originally had another post scheduled, but since I thought readers would like to discuss recent events, and I haven't had time to…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Chance Is Not A Cause

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Be careful!…
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Posted inCulture

Melody May Be A Learned Response?

Received this email from reader Don Siegel: Greetings. Vis a vis how music is getting worse---I'm a prof at Syr. Univ (Earth Sciences) but also lately, a solo jazz guitarist…
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Posted inFun

Consider The Hand — Guest Post by the Blonde Blombshell

Editor's note As I prepare for class this weekend, I have some guest posts and reader's questions prepared for us. The poor hands of the modern person are becoming nothing…
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Posted inStatistics

Fermi’s Paradox & Gaian Bottlenecks

Democracy (the system) is enough to account for the seeming alien life-form which is Hillary and for whatever that thing is on Trump's head. But as queer as Democracy is…
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Posted inPodcast

Trust Me. I’m A Scientist — WMBriggs Podcast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dzAsvJpC10 Download MP3. You'll have to listen in. This is the busiest time of year for me, so I haven't the time to write out a transcript of the show.…
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  1. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

  2. Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…

  3. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    hudbwu, You could be right.

  4. hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

  5. Lucy Tucker on How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)February 5, 2026

    I’m ready to give up the right to vote.

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