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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Posted by By Briggs April 23, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

Posted by By Briggs April 22, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Tide Gauge Locations And Sea Level Rise, Some Statistical Concerns

Marcel Crok asked me to comment on the peer-reviewed paper "Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise" Beenstock (yes) and others in the journal Environmental and…
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Posted inStatistics

It’s World Statistics Day! Death To P-Values, Hypothesis Tests, And False Ascriptions Of Cause! #StatsDay15

Who said the UN doesn't do anything useful? Courtesy of that august body, it's World Statistics Day! Official statistics help decision makers develop informed policies that impact millions of people.…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

Is It Moral To Use Embryonic Stem Cells In Cancer Therapy?

From an anonymous reader comes this question: Situation: Doctor is referring me to an oncologist because I may have Myeloma. Note that I have not yet gone for additional screening.…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Has Free Will

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Here we…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

This Week In Doom: Death Education & Blind Science

This week, entries from readers (I'm woefully behind). Science Is Blind Blind on purpose. Elizabeth Murphy recalls a lecture "delivered at Memorial University in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador recently…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: Scientists Claim Zapping Brains With Magnets Can Treat Belief In God

Apologies to all. I thought this was going to run on Thursday, so I'm a day behind. If you're one of the folks who asked about upcoming articles, these have…
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Posted inStatistics

Why Statistics Can’t Discover Cause, And Bad Priors

My mailbag is filling up. Today two questions from readers, both about statistics. Feel free to send yours in on any subject. Tomorrow is a doozy. Question 1 From reader…
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Posted inStatistics

On The Supposed Newly Discovered “Gay Genes.” Or, The Importance Of Model Skill

Great news! The press and activists are touting a study which claims to have discovered the genes that "make" somebody gay. So get your enwombed baby's DNA scanned and make…
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  1. John Pate on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 23, 2026

    Ovarian Logic has no relationship to, and is not amenable to, formal logic or considerations of causality and empirical observation.…

  2. C-Marie on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Well, skin colour is given by God to each of us. And, Jesus Christ is the only Saviour. Let us…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    @Cary I'm not sure what a "Martian giant" is... Elon Musk? I tried Google but all I found was a…

  4. John M on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    Liberalism Is a Mental Disorder by Michael Savage, ISBN 1-59555-006-2

  5. Cary D Cotterman on Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not PayApril 22, 2026

    You speak wisdom, Martian giant.

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