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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Stream: Scientists Claim Zapping Brains With Magnets Can Treat Belief In God

Apologies to all. I thought this was going to run on Thursday, so I'm a day behind. If you're one of the folks who asked about upcoming articles, these have…
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Posted inStatistics

Why Statistics Can’t Discover Cause, And Bad Priors

My mailbag is filling up. Today two questions from readers, both about statistics. Feel free to send yours in on any subject. Tomorrow is a doozy. Question 1 From reader…
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Posted inStatistics

On The Supposed Newly Discovered “Gay Genes.” Or, The Importance Of Model Skill

Great news! The press and activists are touting a study which claims to have discovered the genes that "make" somebody gay. So get your enwombed baby's DNA scanned and make…
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Posted inStatistics

Enjoy Coffee? You Could Be A Psychopath. Or, Time For A Two-Year Moratorium Of Questionnaire Science

The headline blared "Enjoy coffee or a gin and tonic? You could be a psychopath: People with dark personalities prefer bitter foods and drinks". And then the bullet points: *…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God’s Will And Contingency

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Contingency is…
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Posted inCulture

This Week In Doom: SJW’s Openly Deploying F-Bombs

So a magazine which follows advertisers' leads on how to match sock color F-bombed that neurosurgeon fellow who happens to be running for president. GQ, which I'm not sure who…
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Posted inStatistics

How Many Deaths Does Reading @Voxdotcom Cause?

Bernd Felsche ?sends the breaking Vox news story "How many deaths did Volkswagen's pollution scandal cause? A back-of-the-envelope estimate." This article may represent the triumph of "explanatory" journalism. Volkswagen was…
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Posted inStatistics

There Is No Such Thing As A 1000-Year Flood

Phrases like "100 year rainfalls" or floods or whatever for whatever period of time are awful. They convey an improper idea of uncertainty. The phrase "X year event" is based…
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  1. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  2. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  3. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  4. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  5. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

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