William M. Briggs

Video: The Crisis Of Evidence, Or, Why Probability & Statistics Cannot Discover Cause

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbf_TXqEY-Y Thanks to Jeremy Snavely at DDP for putting up the talks. Here's a direct link. Here's the paper. Q & A starts around 52:30 minutes. Since some readers were…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Can Read Your Mind

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. ESP on…

Book review Philosophy

The Only Metric That Matters

I've been reading reviews of the the peevish Jerry Coyne's new book Faith Versus Fact (I don't have any money to give him to buy an actual copy). Recommended is…

Culture Philosophy

Legalized Suicide Leads To Government Deciding Who Lives, Who Dies. Update: Predictions Verified

If the government believes it has the power to grant you the right to die, then it will eventually believe it has the power to decide who lives and who…

Statistics

Stream: What’s True and What’s False in Obama’s Latest Global Warming Claims

Today's post is at The Stream: What's True and What's False in Obama's Latest Global Warming Claims. There is so much hyperbolic language surrounding the topic of global warming that…

Statistics

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

The rebuttal to the criticism of our original peer-reviewed climate model paper "Why models run hot" has been published in Science Bulletin. It is also peer-reviewed, and therefore it must…

Culture Statistics

Which Statistics Grad School If You’re Sick Of Hocus-Pocus P-values?

I received this query from a reader and thought it important enough for all of us to answer. I was hoping you could provide some advice for an aspiring statistician.…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability & Statistics Cannot Prove Cause

Correlation I was at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness conference in Ontario (LA) California and gave my paper The Crisis Of Evidence: Why Probability And Statistics Cannot Discover Cause, which…

Cary D Cotterman on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
There's always something busting on a house or a car, and mean weather doesn't help. The joy of home and…
shawn marshall on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
c'mon global warming!
Chad W Jessup on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
Wish some of that snow would come west, as it looks like La Niña is not helping out here. Repairing…
Brian (bulaoren) on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
Dr. Briggs I reckon you can be forgiven for today's little screed; That weather sounds pretty nasty. My only experience…
Lucy Tucker on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
Yikes, Sarge, hang in there!

William M. Briggs

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

Why The Drake Equation Fails

Canada Invents New Euphemism For Doctor Killings

Merry Christmas!

Complete List Of All Moral & Ethical Questions Answered By Science

Why British & EU Rulers Are Juicing War With Russia

Climate Models

Is Powerball A “Fair Game”?

No Class: But Here’s Some Homework

On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble Reviewed