William M. Briggs

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: That God Is One I

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Hotting up…

Culture

This Partly Explains Why Education Is Such A Mess

I am away from the computer today. Alternate title, A Few Moments With The Teacher's College (Columbia) Record. Many educators are told what to think at this institution before they…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…

Culture

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. So…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

C-Marie on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
The need for Jesus Christ, Who is the Way, Who is the Truth, Who is the Life, and Who is…
N.S. Palmer on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
The Academic Fallacy is what I called "the Existentialist Fallacy:" "Certain errors creep into most debates about social policy and…
Cary Cotterman on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
I never heard of this Arday buffoon until a couple of weeks ago. As I read through the account of…
Brian (bulaoren) on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
@ Uncle Mike Your comment reminds me that I really miss William F Buckley. He was often accused of dredging…
Uncle Mike on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026
Five stars for the use of "rhodomontade"! I suspect nobody on the faculty at Cambridge knows the word, because they…

William M. Briggs

You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason Arday

Academics: Achieve Sustainability by Easing Population to 4 Billion by 2200

The Impossibility of Proposition Nations

Ugly Women Rulers Condemn Lookism

The Wee P Boogie: The Song That’s Sweeping the Nation!

Wolfgang Smith For Everyone

Death By Organ Donation

$7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?

Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap Hanekamp

Believing In God Makes You Crave Potato Chips, Say Academics

Hume’s Guillotine, Euclid’s Catapult: Induction, Axioms, and Objective Ethics

University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEing

The Equality Paradox

My Horrible Interaction With AI

SOON

The Court’s Slow Theft Of The Constitution — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Happy Birthday to US

Never Use Or Trust P-values (Pagan-Values)

Musk Doges Deaths: Researchers Say USAID Absence Kills Kills Kills!

The Intellectual Capacity Of Women by David Stove

Marbles!

You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason Arday

Academics: Achieve Sustainability by Easing Population to 4 Billion by 2200

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Summary Against Modern Thought: That God Is One I

This Partly Explains Why Education Is Such A Mess

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification