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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
March 12, 2026
On Not Reading
March 11, 2026
The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI
March 10, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Posted by By Briggs April 16, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Posted by By Briggs April 15, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Contingency & Necessity

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. Previous post. The First Way is in the bag. And now…
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Posted inFun

All Men Are Mortal: A New, Award Eligible Mini Play

All Men Are Mortal SCENE: A windfarm in Absolute County, a dry patch of land out west. CAST OF CHARACTERS: BRANDON, a speechwriter for Earth Is It! RUSS, Sheriff of…
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Posted inStatistics

The Letter The Lancet Wouldn’t Publish

Here's the title of a big new peer-reviewed paper in The Lancet: Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the…
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Posted inStatistics

Live From Heartland Climate Conference, Wrap Up

Profound thanks I cannot say enough about the generosity of my benefactor, who not only footed the bill for my trip, but wined and dined and rummed our Secret Society…
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Posted inStatistics

Live From Heartland Climate Conference, Day Two

What happened to Day One? If I find out, you'll be the first to know. Through the extreme generosity of one of us, I'm here in Las Vegas at Heartland's…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Evolution Under Fixed Constraints; Or, Why Random Changes Don’t Cut It

See if this analogy makes sense. A ramp onto which you loose a ball, which can roll down and fall into one of three slots. The configuration is such that…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Non-existence Of Infinite Causal Chains

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. Previous post. Here's what was proved so far: (1) that some…
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Posted inCulture

Don’t Go To Confession; Humpty-Dumptying The English Language; More

A Time To Die The play is done! But, as you can see, you cannot see it. This being the 5th of July and a Saturday in what must be…
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  1. Alain Petit on Antichrist, by Saint Robert Bellarmine, ReviewedApril 16, 2026

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbmoVdirxw&pp=0gcJCdMKAYcqIYzv

  2. Klara Castagna on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 16, 2026

    Ianto, I luv ya man, I bought and read your book ‘The Barbarian Bible’ - everyone should buy it and…

  3. MikeW on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 16, 2026

    There are many ways to reconcile alleged contradictions in the Bible, including the staff issue (which is not a particularly…

  4. C-Marie on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026

    "Memories flag, you see,....." , BUT the Holy Spirit does not flag at all , and He It was Who…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on How A Miracle Turns MundaneApril 15, 2026

    Should these (percieved) inconsistencies negate the whole body of teaching? I once knew a couple who were profoundly opposed to…

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